NLD Twenty-Nine!
by Jeepdriver » Thu Oct 20, 2011 9:40 am
Stiff test last night playing the Hawks at their place, but I say I passed taking 2 of 3. :)
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by joethejet » Fri Oct 21, 2011 12:08 am
Well, we're improving, we can win one game a series now. :roll:
Got completely shut down by that stud C. Richard facing 8 RHB's.
Don't feel so bad that Hamels handcuffed us.
I guess when you only score five runs, you should be happy to win a game at all. Had to get a bases loaded walk and a 1-10 HR to force extras and then won it with the help of a 1-2 single p(x) off of Contreras in the 12th. :roll:
So sad. We continue with a .333 win pct.
I wish we had chosen to do two leagues this time around, a .500 team maybe, but .333???????? Yeesh. :roll:
Well, we'll ride it out. Had a couple of trade proposals fall through so I think we're stuck with what we got.
Jet
p.s. I'll still do ratings, not sure when. Not excited to see how poorly we're underperforming the ratings.
Got completely shut down by that stud C. Richard facing 8 RHB's.
Don't feel so bad that Hamels handcuffed us.
I guess when you only score five runs, you should be happy to win a game at all. Had to get a bases loaded walk and a 1-10 HR to force extras and then won it with the help of a 1-2 single p(x) off of Contreras in the 12th. :roll:
So sad. We continue with a .333 win pct.
I wish we had chosen to do two leagues this time around, a .500 team maybe, but .333???????? Yeesh. :roll:
Well, we'll ride it out. Had a couple of trade proposals fall through so I think we're stuck with what we got.
Jet
p.s. I'll still do ratings, not sure when. Not excited to see how poorly we're underperforming the ratings.
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by bigmahon » Fri Oct 21, 2011 1:54 am
Joe, I don't think your team is dramatically under-performing. If your ratings suggest its one of the top teams in the league, then I'd have to seriously question your ratings (again).
A few observations:
Your pitching is suffering at the hands (or lack thereof) of your defence. I don't love your staff, but they are not getting any help at all. You are last in the league in DP's turned, and also OSB %. When your opponents get on base, you're not as effective as other teams at clearing them off. And I suspect this was where you really felt the pain of Tulo's 15 game injury.
You have almost no team speed. No surprise that you have your running and steal set to extra conservative, but you must know that your leadfoots are not helping you score runs.
You have a plethora of RP 1's, which is forcing HAL to lean on Robinson Tejada. Tough going when your top innings eater is a $1m player. Why aren't you getting more innings out of Wilson. I would.
Tulo to kick off your draft really hurt. I know we talked about the good year Dave got out of him a couple of seasons ago, but IMO he is poor value at that price point. You're paying for his defence primarily, and with up the middle defence it's nice to know it's going to be there game in game out. Obviously not gonna happen with Tulo. I hate Werth at that price too.
Anyway, just a few things I've noticed. I look forward to the ratings!
A few observations:
Your pitching is suffering at the hands (or lack thereof) of your defence. I don't love your staff, but they are not getting any help at all. You are last in the league in DP's turned, and also OSB %. When your opponents get on base, you're not as effective as other teams at clearing them off. And I suspect this was where you really felt the pain of Tulo's 15 game injury.
You have almost no team speed. No surprise that you have your running and steal set to extra conservative, but you must know that your leadfoots are not helping you score runs.
You have a plethora of RP 1's, which is forcing HAL to lean on Robinson Tejada. Tough going when your top innings eater is a $1m player. Why aren't you getting more innings out of Wilson. I would.
Tulo to kick off your draft really hurt. I know we talked about the good year Dave got out of him a couple of seasons ago, but IMO he is poor value at that price point. You're paying for his defence primarily, and with up the middle defence it's nice to know it's going to be there game in game out. Obviously not gonna happen with Tulo. I hate Werth at that price too.
Anyway, just a few things I've noticed. I look forward to the ratings!
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by joethejet » Fri Oct 21, 2011 7:00 pm
Big M, thanks for taking a look. You have some points, about my weaknesses, but my contention is that we shouldn't be THIS weak in those categories and it's not like there shouldn't be some strengths to this team that sure aren't showing up.
With Tulo and all 2 OF, our D isn't bad. It's average. Now, not having Tulo for 17 games so far obviously affected that. Hanson (+9) and Verlander (+3) and Madsen (now dropped) have 70% of the steals allowed. No one is going to help Hanson, even Yadier. Verlander could get some help of course. And, about that percentage....doesn't a 90% allowed rate seem a bit strange? I mean I know I have a +2 or +1 Catcher, but do you think the average steal against us is 1-18? The max you can have is 1-19. That's a LOT of success given that the max addition when you're holding is +3. That means the average guy getting the jump is 1-15 on those two pitchers and more than that the other pitchers. Maybe that's the case. You're right, however, that SBs are hurting us and Tulo being out hurt our DPs. Also, we don't have high DP ptichers. Wilson has 0 as do Verlander and Tejeda. Only Zito has 9/8 the other two are at 5. Explains the lack of DPs, something the ratings do take into account.
Speed. Well, our running isn't set to extra conservative, but we're not blazing it's true. Everyone but our catchers and Huff (11) and Uggla (12) are average (13) or above. The only true burner however is Bonifacio. Obviously our lack of slugging was killing us. I don't believe this team is a sub .400 slugging team that it was for most of the season until the last three series. It's still on the low side I believe. We aren't going to steal a lot of bases for sure and speed is an issue when you're hitting singles.
We have 3 1 RPs. I believe a lot of teams in the league have the same or more. In our division only keyz has fewer, you have 4 and so does Stoney. As for why Wilson isn't pitching much and Tejeda is??? Well, the answer is pretty darn obvious. Look at our SP ERAs! :shock: We're getting lit up across the board. Hanson has been decent and Zito ok, but I need the other two carry some innings. Wilson is Hal's first option except for when we're behind and as a Middle RP. Almost every time Tejeda has pitched it's been in a mop up role or extra innings.
As for Tulo, you have to get a bit lucky with hiim and I haven't for sure. It was a gamble that hasn't paid off. :( He hits the crud out of the ball when he's healthy.
Werth we didn't draft for the reasons you mention. We had Braun instead. So, we cut Hundley and Braun for Werth and Paulino. Do you think that was a good trade? He fits our park well and improved our D immensely.
What is killing us? Well, speed is a factor. Giving up a 90% steal rating? Probably some bad luck there, but we arent' going to be good in that category with Hanson and Verlander.
Our slugging has been pathetic before the last couple of series and mostly concentrated into one game a series (except in Yankee) in those. We have to hit for power and clutch. We do have good OB.
On the pitching side Verlander, our supposed horse, has been a .50 guy. RHBs are hitting .318 on him and LHB 251. In fact, every pitcher has been brutal v RHB they're hitting us at a .285 clip. Believe it or not, Zito has the best BA v RHB! :shock: In 41 batters Downs has allowed a .366 average SSS for sure but....
Wilson is 3 for 8 in save situations has a 5.86 ERA and 1.67 whip. And, remember, I'm not playing in Coors.
In short, I can believe what DT and Silver said about this being a .500 team, but no way this is a .333 team. You have to be BAAAAAAD to be that bad. This team may be mediocre, but it doesn't suck. Well, that's what I think. So far they are proving me wrong. :P :(
Jet
With Tulo and all 2 OF, our D isn't bad. It's average. Now, not having Tulo for 17 games so far obviously affected that. Hanson (+9) and Verlander (+3) and Madsen (now dropped) have 70% of the steals allowed. No one is going to help Hanson, even Yadier. Verlander could get some help of course. And, about that percentage....doesn't a 90% allowed rate seem a bit strange? I mean I know I have a +2 or +1 Catcher, but do you think the average steal against us is 1-18? The max you can have is 1-19. That's a LOT of success given that the max addition when you're holding is +3. That means the average guy getting the jump is 1-15 on those two pitchers and more than that the other pitchers. Maybe that's the case. You're right, however, that SBs are hurting us and Tulo being out hurt our DPs. Also, we don't have high DP ptichers. Wilson has 0 as do Verlander and Tejeda. Only Zito has 9/8 the other two are at 5. Explains the lack of DPs, something the ratings do take into account.
Speed. Well, our running isn't set to extra conservative, but we're not blazing it's true. Everyone but our catchers and Huff (11) and Uggla (12) are average (13) or above. The only true burner however is Bonifacio. Obviously our lack of slugging was killing us. I don't believe this team is a sub .400 slugging team that it was for most of the season until the last three series. It's still on the low side I believe. We aren't going to steal a lot of bases for sure and speed is an issue when you're hitting singles.
We have 3 1 RPs. I believe a lot of teams in the league have the same or more. In our division only keyz has fewer, you have 4 and so does Stoney. As for why Wilson isn't pitching much and Tejeda is??? Well, the answer is pretty darn obvious. Look at our SP ERAs! :shock: We're getting lit up across the board. Hanson has been decent and Zito ok, but I need the other two carry some innings. Wilson is Hal's first option except for when we're behind and as a Middle RP. Almost every time Tejeda has pitched it's been in a mop up role or extra innings.
As for Tulo, you have to get a bit lucky with hiim and I haven't for sure. It was a gamble that hasn't paid off. :( He hits the crud out of the ball when he's healthy.
Werth we didn't draft for the reasons you mention. We had Braun instead. So, we cut Hundley and Braun for Werth and Paulino. Do you think that was a good trade? He fits our park well and improved our D immensely.
What is killing us? Well, speed is a factor. Giving up a 90% steal rating? Probably some bad luck there, but we arent' going to be good in that category with Hanson and Verlander.
Our slugging has been pathetic before the last couple of series and mostly concentrated into one game a series (except in Yankee) in those. We have to hit for power and clutch. We do have good OB.
On the pitching side Verlander, our supposed horse, has been a .50 guy. RHBs are hitting .318 on him and LHB 251. In fact, every pitcher has been brutal v RHB they're hitting us at a .285 clip. Believe it or not, Zito has the best BA v RHB! :shock: In 41 batters Downs has allowed a .366 average SSS for sure but....
Wilson is 3 for 8 in save situations has a 5.86 ERA and 1.67 whip. And, remember, I'm not playing in Coors.
In short, I can believe what DT and Silver said about this being a .500 team, but no way this is a .333 team. You have to be BAAAAAAD to be that bad. This team may be mediocre, but it doesn't suck. Well, that's what I think. So far they are proving me wrong. :P :(
Jet
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by joethejet » Sat Oct 22, 2011 12:00 am
HOLY CRAP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
We WON a series!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
OMG, it's a sign of the apocalypse!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Three extremely close games with DT.
Game one, a BS for Downs giving up a 3 run HR to Youky. We battle back to force extras on a 2B E by Choo, but fall in 13. On a sac fly. An attempt to tie the game in the bottom of th einning fails when Langer is thrown out 1-13 (with no outs) by Crawford.
Game two - Tulo is awesome, but gets injured for 10 games!!!!!!!!!!!!! :( WTF!?! Hey, no bad luck there of course. 10 games? W*T*F? He drives in 4 before getting hurt (again)
Game 3 - amazinly we win a game w/o Tulo. Wilson ACTUALLY saves a game despite giving up 2 runs in 1.2 IP and now sports a 6.28 ERA. Totally realistic I might add. Luckly Werth hits a 3 run 1-10 HR.
So, in summary, Tulo will miss 27 of our first 66 games (40%). Not exactly the odds you would figure. :( Should be 24.1%. Hey Big M, how many games has Utley (same injury number) missed?
Well, hopefully Valdez can do SOMETHING this time around. 8-)
We WON a series!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
OMG, it's a sign of the apocalypse!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Three extremely close games with DT.
Game one, a BS for Downs giving up a 3 run HR to Youky. We battle back to force extras on a 2B E by Choo, but fall in 13. On a sac fly. An attempt to tie the game in the bottom of th einning fails when Langer is thrown out 1-13 (with no outs) by Crawford.
Game two - Tulo is awesome, but gets injured for 10 games!!!!!!!!!!!!! :( WTF!?! Hey, no bad luck there of course. 10 games? W*T*F? He drives in 4 before getting hurt (again)
Game 3 - amazinly we win a game w/o Tulo. Wilson ACTUALLY saves a game despite giving up 2 runs in 1.2 IP and now sports a 6.28 ERA. Totally realistic I might add. Luckly Werth hits a 3 run 1-10 HR.
So, in summary, Tulo will miss 27 of our first 66 games (40%). Not exactly the odds you would figure. :( Should be 24.1%. Hey Big M, how many games has Utley (same injury number) missed?
Well, hopefully Valdez can do SOMETHING this time around. 8-)
- joethejet
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