[quote:7ba0437e63="geekor"]I wish there was a greasemonkey script that would tell you the % of plays for each person on your team that came off their cards, and a total for your entire team at the bottom. Would be interesting to see that data compared to wins/losses and struggling players[/quote:7ba0437e63]
yes that would be handy
18 Straight Rolls on Batters Card Against My Team...
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by PotKettleBlack » Thu Nov 10, 2011 11:04 pm
Donning my horn rims and pocket protector...
Math Lesson... begin.
Every specific combination of 18 50-50 rolls is 1 in 262K.
M = Me
Y = You
MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM
is as likely as
MYMYMYMYMYMYMYMYMY
which is as likely as
MMMYYMYYMMYYYYMMYM
and so on.
There are ~262K ways of arranging 18 iterations of a coin flip. Not one is more likely than any other.
Before you say that a 9-9 distribution is more likely, I will stop you and agree. An aggregate distribution of 9-9 is the most common outcome, but there are several thousand ways to get 9-9. Only one way to get 18-0. And no specific 9-9 outcome is, individually, more likely to occurs than 18-0. Or 0-18 for that matter.
Taking off my jacket with suede elbow patches, putting the horn rims away.
Resume your normal discussion. Math lesson complete.
Math Lesson... begin.
Every specific combination of 18 50-50 rolls is 1 in 262K.
M = Me
Y = You
MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM
is as likely as
MYMYMYMYMYMYMYMYMY
which is as likely as
MMMYYMYYMMYYYYMMYM
and so on.
There are ~262K ways of arranging 18 iterations of a coin flip. Not one is more likely than any other.
Before you say that a 9-9 distribution is more likely, I will stop you and agree. An aggregate distribution of 9-9 is the most common outcome, but there are several thousand ways to get 9-9. Only one way to get 18-0. And no specific 9-9 outcome is, individually, more likely to occurs than 18-0. Or 0-18 for that matter.
Taking off my jacket with suede elbow patches, putting the horn rims away.
Resume your normal discussion. Math lesson complete.
- PotKettleBlack
- Posts: 55
- Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2012 2:34 pm
by Valen » Thu Nov 10, 2011 11:36 pm
rburgh and pot make some interesting points. And multiplying rburgh's estimate of 6,500 PAs in a season by the gazillion seasons some of you play every week and ...
Not going to give myself a headache doing the math so accepting those numbers at face value. Also accepting the 1 in 262K odds as fact. Does that mean it could not have happened by chance? Maybe. You could probably convince me fairly easily. Consider that the odds of an Amino acid forming by accident is 1 in many trillion and the odds of multiple Amino acids combining to form a DNA strand is in the trillions yet we have no problem believing these things happened. 1 in 262K is nothing compared to that.
The greasemonkey script counting would be interesting. It would be interesting to know if say over a million PA that rolls hit on hitters cards 60% of the time instead of the expected 50%
If I had such a script I would carry it a step further. Why stop at just whether the 50-50 split carries through? Why not count the die rolls and determine if 1-6 are also occurring in even distribution? If they don't the entire concept of the odds of a 6 or 7 or even snakeyes is flawed as is the entire strat model. What if say the 1 roll comes up 20% of the time instead of 16.6?
I suppose you could think of that as the computer equivalent of weighted dice. And is that not ultimately what we are talking about here, that this is just too amazing to have happened by chance and something is wrong? Or am I reading too much in to this thread? If I am it will not hurt my feelings to be corrected.
Not going to give myself a headache doing the math so accepting those numbers at face value. Also accepting the 1 in 262K odds as fact. Does that mean it could not have happened by chance? Maybe. You could probably convince me fairly easily. Consider that the odds of an Amino acid forming by accident is 1 in many trillion and the odds of multiple Amino acids combining to form a DNA strand is in the trillions yet we have no problem believing these things happened. 1 in 262K is nothing compared to that.
The greasemonkey script counting would be interesting. It would be interesting to know if say over a million PA that rolls hit on hitters cards 60% of the time instead of the expected 50%
If I had such a script I would carry it a step further. Why stop at just whether the 50-50 split carries through? Why not count the die rolls and determine if 1-6 are also occurring in even distribution? If they don't the entire concept of the odds of a 6 or 7 or even snakeyes is flawed as is the entire strat model. What if say the 1 roll comes up 20% of the time instead of 16.6?
I suppose you could think of that as the computer equivalent of weighted dice. And is that not ultimately what we are talking about here, that this is just too amazing to have happened by chance and something is wrong? Or am I reading too much in to this thread? If I am it will not hurt my feelings to be corrected.
Last edited by Valen on Thu Nov 10, 2011 11:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
- Valen
- Posts: 54
- Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2012 2:34 pm
by macnole » Fri Nov 11, 2011 1:23 am
[quote:81253f7637="PotKettleBlack"]Donning my horn rims and pocket protector...
Math Lesson... begin.
Every specific combination of 18 50-50 rolls is 1 in 262K.
M = Me
Y = You
MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM
is as likely as
MYMYMYMYMYMYMYMYMY
which is as likely as
MMMYYMYYMMYYYYMMYM
and so on.
There are ~262K ways of arranging 18 iterations of a coin flip. Not one is more likely than any other.
Before you say that a 9-9 distribution is more likely, I will stop you and agree. An aggregate distribution of 9-9 is the most common outcome, but there are several thousand ways to get 9-9. Only one way to get 18-0. And no specific 9-9 outcome is, individually, more likely to occurs than 18-0. Or 0-18 for that matter.
Taking off my jacket with suede elbow patches, putting the horn rims away.
Resume your normal discussion. Math lesson complete.[/quote:81253f7637]
Don't exactly agree unless I've misunderstood you. There is a distribution of outcomes in the aggregate. Binomial probability for independent outcomes is not just the product. There's an entire coefficient array that acts as a "weight" and yields the distribution of outcomes.
Only one way to get 18 straight heads, but not only one way to get 10 heads and 8 tails--it is not a unique sequence--they are independent.
Math Lesson... begin.
Every specific combination of 18 50-50 rolls is 1 in 262K.
M = Me
Y = You
MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM
is as likely as
MYMYMYMYMYMYMYMYMY
which is as likely as
MMMYYMYYMMYYYYMMYM
and so on.
There are ~262K ways of arranging 18 iterations of a coin flip. Not one is more likely than any other.
Before you say that a 9-9 distribution is more likely, I will stop you and agree. An aggregate distribution of 9-9 is the most common outcome, but there are several thousand ways to get 9-9. Only one way to get 18-0. And no specific 9-9 outcome is, individually, more likely to occurs than 18-0. Or 0-18 for that matter.
Taking off my jacket with suede elbow patches, putting the horn rims away.
Resume your normal discussion. Math lesson complete.[/quote:81253f7637]
Don't exactly agree unless I've misunderstood you. There is a distribution of outcomes in the aggregate. Binomial probability for independent outcomes is not just the product. There's an entire coefficient array that acts as a "weight" and yields the distribution of outcomes.
Only one way to get 18 straight heads, but not only one way to get 10 heads and 8 tails--it is not a unique sequence--they are independent.
- macnole
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- Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2012 2:34 pm
by PotKettleBlack » Fri Nov 11, 2011 10:03 am
Macnole, you are agreeing.
There is one way to get 18 heads - 0 tails.
There at 18 ways to get 17 heads - 1 tails.
But no INDIVIDUAL version of 17/1 is more likely that the 18-0, even though 17-1 as a total distribution is 18x as likely.
There is one way to get 18 heads - 0 tails.
There at 18 ways to get 17 heads - 1 tails.
But no INDIVIDUAL version of 17/1 is more likely that the 18-0, even though 17-1 as a total distribution is 18x as likely.
- PotKettleBlack
- Posts: 55
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by YountFan » Fri Nov 11, 2011 10:22 am
[quote:92ecacdcaa="Valen"] Consider that the odds of an Amino acid forming by accident is 1 in many trillion and the odds of multiple Amino acids combining to form a DNA strand is in the trillions yet we have no problem believing these things happened. [/quote:92ecacdcaa]
I have a problem believing that is an accident.
I have a problem believing that is an accident.
- YountFan
- Posts: 55
- Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2012 2:34 pm
by macnole » Fri Nov 11, 2011 10:38 am
I do PKB. 8-) It's highly unlikely to get 18 out of 18 rolls against the batter's card.
I'm a natural skeptic of all things, but that happened twice in a game...hmmm. I will start looking at results more closely--I never really bother.
I'm a natural skeptic of all things, but that happened twice in a game...hmmm. I will start looking at results more closely--I never really bother.
- macnole
- Posts: 55
- Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2012 2:34 pm
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