The Secret Formula 2011

[J-Pav]

[quote:d407eb0f18="mbertolli"]Can you post links to the teams/leagues you looked at?

Mike[/quote:d407eb0f18]


[b:d407eb0f18]Mike[/b:d407eb0f18]:

Most of the rings are won by "regulars", many of whom are still competing in the tour-semis. Posting their teams without contacting them first probably wouldn't be fair to them. Maybe after the finals league starts I'll post a few teams.

[J-Pav]

[quote:9e7a3b804d="elpasopesos"]I again want to register my opposition to there being any secret way to win in this game. I just swept JPAV 4 games in the semi finals and felt a bit of vindicarion. He fielded a team with Scott Rolen at 3B with no other player at 3B. Had he suffered a 15 game injury that would have seriously handicapped his team. Following some salary construct ignores the importance of delicate balances between left and right handed pitchers, speed, defense, power, and OBP. This is what works for me: Play one team at a time and manage it well daily. Create a philosopy and stick to it as best you can. Avoid dropping players and look to make trades first. Model your team for your park and take into serious consideration the parks in your division. Love HAL.[/quote:9e7a3b804d]

Mark:

"Secret" is tongue in cheek, as [b:9e7a3b804d]socal[/b:9e7a3b804d] mentioned earlier. There are no absolutes in this game, as any 109 win team in one league could finish one game out of the wildcard in another. If there was a "secret" all my teams would win rings every time and I certainly wouldn't be posting how I'm doing it!

In any endeavor, I've always believed success leaves clues. Feel free to take these observations, both positively and negatively, and reinforce your own. While I respect your "delicate balances", I have found no trends to bear out your observations. That would be on you. The things I write about appear year after year.

This year, seven of the 20 Championship teams are my own. In order are the 20 rings, my 7 and the 13 others:

Pitching

1. 6.34 [color=blue:9e7a3b804d]6.06[/color:9e7a3b804d] 6.50
2. 5.00 [color=blue:9e7a3b804d]5.01[/color:9e7a3b804d] 5.00
3. 4.12 [color=blue:9e7a3b804d]4.47[/color:9e7a3b804d] 3.93
4. 3.20 [color=blue:9e7a3b804d]3.97[/color:9e7a3b804d] 2.79
5. 1.13 [color=blue:9e7a3b804d]1.23[/color:9e7a3b804d] 1.08

6. 3.61 [color=blue:9e7a3b804d]3.22[/color:9e7a3b804d] 3.82
7. 2.39 [color=blue:9e7a3b804d]1.90[/color:9e7a3b804d] 2.66
8. 1.41 [color=blue:9e7a3b804d]1.36[/color:9e7a3b804d] 1.44
9. 0.84 [color=blue:9e7a3b804d]0.88[/color:9e7a3b804d] 0.81
10. 0.64 [color=blue:9e7a3b804d]0.69[/color:9e7a3b804d] 0.62

Hitting

1. 9.49 [color=blue:9e7a3b804d]8.78[/color:9e7a3b804d] 9.88
2. 8.00 [color=blue:9e7a3b804d]8.18[/color:9e7a3b804d] 7.90
3. 7.14 [color=blue:9e7a3b804d]7.69[/color:9e7a3b804d] 7.90
4. 6.32 [color=blue:9e7a3b804d]6.59[/color:9e7a3b804d] 6.18
5. 4.42 [color=blue:9e7a3b804d]3.48[/color:9e7a3b804d] 4.92
6. 3.37 [color=blue:9e7a3b804d]2.87[/color:9e7a3b804d] 3.64
7. 2.86 [color=blue:9e7a3b804d]2.72[/color:9e7a3b804d] 2.93
8. 2.16 [color=blue:9e7a3b804d]2.21[/color:9e7a3b804d] 2.14
9. 1.66 [color=blue:9e7a3b804d]1.97[/color:9e7a3b804d] 1.50

Overall:

20 teams: $19.94 SP, $9.05 RP, $50.36 Hitting.
[color=blue:9e7a3b804d]J-Pav teams: $21.02 SP, $8.17 RP, $50.53 Hitting.[/color:9e7a3b804d]
13 others: $19.36 SP, $9.52 RP, $50.26 Hitting.

For the most part, I'm eating my own cooking. I do wonder if my own personal preference to spend slightly higher for SPs over the years leads to some greater benefit in the playoffs. I score pretty well there with 37% of my playoff teams winning rings (instead of the generally accepted coin toss 25%). But maybe I'm just on the lucky side of a tail that will eventually even out, as would be perfectly understandable.

And congratulations on your ring from our league! 8-1 in the playoffs is a nice effort!!

[J-Pav]

[quote:4c00ec78c2="apolivka"]Wow, you must be only talking DH leagues. Here's my two 2010 teams:

88 wins and the champs:
http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/stratomatic/team/team_other.html?user_id=295088

11 complete games and 3rd best staff in the league

89 wins, but lost in the finals:
http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/stratomatic/team/team_other.html?user_id=315548

10 complete games and also 3rd best staff in the league

This team also featured some pretty horrible infield defense by HanRam, Dangerous Donnie Murphy, the Roberts Brothers (Ryan and Brian), Mitch granite hands Moreland, and Maicer Izturis (who was my only decent defender when he wasn't on the DL, which seemed like most of the time)

No-DH is way more fun, in my opinion. Your bench actually plays and the bottom of you bullpen pitches quite a bit more because of late game pinch hitting for the pitcher.[/quote:4c00ec78c2]

[b:4c00ec78c2]Adam[/b:4c00ec78c2]:

For consistency, I always use $80 mil DH leagues (which is generally the league of choice). No DH leagues (and other salary caps) would blur the comparisons.

[J-Pav]

Also, [b:cdb2e2e632]wavygravy[/b:cdb2e2e632] pm'd me to say he looked at 50 additional teams. Hopefully he'll catch up to us here and post what he discovered independent of me.

[elpasopesos]

Mark:

"Secret" is tongue in cheek, as [b:a9b807611c]socal[/b:a9b807611c] mentioned earlier. There are no absolutes in this game, as any 109 win team in one league could finish one game out of the wildcard in another. If there was a "secret" all my teams would win rings every time and I certainly wouldn't be posting how I'm doing it!

In any endeavor, I've always believed success leaves clues. Feel free to take these observations, both positively and negatively, and reinforce your own. While I respect your "delicate balances", I have found no trends to bear out your observations. That would be on you. The things I write about appear year after year.

This year, seven of the 20 Championship teams are my own. In order are the 20 rings, my 7 and the 13 others:



And congratulations on your ring from our league! 8-1 in the playoffs is a nice effort!![/quote]


My observations:

First J PAV I respect your incredible success. I see your teams as those that waste nothing; this is due also to very good settings management. Jerlins is also someone else I respect. I have competed against him in a few leagues and learned a great deal about platoons and park management from him.


Congratulations to the moron who pounced on my obvious typo on the word vindication. Resorting to this kind of attack is simply rhetorical and meaningless; you are only deflecting your inability to think creatively and independently.

I am a bit bothered that 7 of the 20 teams you analyzed were your own. Isn't it logical that your teams would follow your own formula? In the final analysis I just want other managers to have as much fun as I do discovering and building a team on their own.

You never responded to my point about having no back up for a player with less that 600 PA. In my philosophy this would be a major flaw. This is what I mean by the importance of delicate balances. One bad injury could unravel your chance for success. I point to my own moderate level of success as proof that my approach to Strato has value.

I understand that you have disciples and surrogates; I find this curious and fascinating. Thanks for the words of congratulations. I would cherish a rematch league anytime. Just remember I only play one team at a time. Mark (elpasopesos)

[tony best]

one secret formula team

1B M. Cabrerra
3B A. Beltre
LF M. Holiday
C B. McCann
RF B. Zobrist
CF M. Byrd
SS A. Gonzalez
2B J. Herrera
DH V. Guerrero

SP
J.Lester
B. Myers
T.Lilly
M. Schertzer
M. Pelfry

RP
CL M. Adams
B. League
M. Bautista
B. Jenks
J. Contreras
OPINIONS?

[MrHacktastic]

I love reading this stuff. I am just doing my very first team right now. So far I have learned that I have made a lot of mistakes already. Including too many transactions after the penalty kicks in (although I tried to trade first and couldn't find takers). I also don't have my money allocated quite right.

I made some mistakes with autodraft that double screwed me. I listed some lesser players higher thinking it would improve my chances of getting role players I really wanted. I got my role players and only a few guys I really wanted to carry the club. Because in total I got a lot of players I listed I was 9th out of 12 on the waiver wire despite having to completely rehaul my club. I didn't understand the waiver ranking before the draft as it was my first one. I will rank my players different next time.

I also made assumptions based on real life baseball surrounding the importance of starting pitching and how closers are the most overpaid position in real baseball given the amount of actual innings pitched and didn't spend much there. The jury is still out on that as my bullpen has been a pleasant surprise considering the low investment but only 66 games in I expect it to even out and be a weakness.

I especially loved the article about the impact of lost runs in relation to fielding rating and have been consulting that as I prepare for my next draft.


Thanks for the hard work and research to all people that make threads like this.

Here is my first squad if you are interested.

http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/stratomatic/team/team_other.html?user_id=358554

[J-Pav]

[quote:e4631a068b="elpasopesos"]I am a bit bothered that 7 of the 20 teams you analyzed were your own. Isn't it logical that your teams would follow your own formula? In the final analysis I just want other managers to have as much fun as I do discovering and building a team on their own.[/quote:e4631a068b]

No reason to be bothered. I've often said I rarely follow the formula myself, simply because I play so many teams that I would find it boring to be so repetitive. I'm fascinated by the process of team-building as much as anyone.

Isn't it [i:e4631a068b]somewhat[/i:e4631a068b] interesting though that out of 30 some teams I've played, when I pool my Championship teams together they look so much like [i:e4631a068b]other[/i:e4631a068b] winning teams??

Lastly, why does me telling you what I'm looking at diminish discovering things on your own? I'm not trying to win anybody over, except to say that I think too many people try a team or two, do not do well, and never return to the game. A smaller pool of players hurts everyone. As a professor, I would think you would be in full support of some education that would keep managers involved with learning the game.


[quote:e4631a068b="elpasopesos"]You never responded to my point about having no back up for a player with less that 600 PA. In my philosophy this would be a major flaw. This is what I mean by the importance of delicate balances. One bad injury could unravel your chance for success. I point to my own moderate level of success as proof that my approach to Strato has value.[/quote:e4631a068b]

Just because you think it's a major flaw doesn't mean I have to, does it? I argue that a backup 3B is pretty close to meaningless, and I just don't have the energy to try and convince you otherwise.

[quote:e4631a068b="elpasopesos"]I understand that you have disciples and surrogates; I find this curious and fascinating. Thanks for the words of congratulations. I would cherish a rematch league anytime. Just remember I only play one team at a time. Mark (elpasopesos)[/quote:e4631a068b]

This is somewhat bothersome to me, only because I'm not quite sure what you're getting at. I've been posting on these boards for going on 10 years now. Many other posters have been on equally long, and we've simply known each other a long time now. I don't know what's "curious" about a 10 year reputation among a small online community.

Rematches are easy with me, because I'm playing 5-7 teams all the time. Hop in whenever you see me in a league! :D

[J-Pav]

[b:25ee2a4ef7]tonysbest[/b:25ee2a4ef7],

Can you post a link to your team?

[b:25ee2a4ef7]Hackdog99[/b:25ee2a4ef7],

I don't play these versions (is that ATG?) I don't have any idea how these teams perform, but it looks like you're doing pretty well!

[keyzick]

Yeah, the "disciples and surrogates" comment is somewhat bizarre.

I love reading JPav's secret formula post each year. Unfortunately, to my own demise, I never have the patience to follow it. Or rather, if I do, it's by happenstance and not by design.

So, in that respect, I guess I've been a bad disciple!

I recognize my own personal mistakes with this game, which I commit more often than not - I spread myself too thin trying to be strong in all facets, and ultimately end up with an average team (ie, jack of all trades, master of none).

I have nothing but respect for the amount of time and analysis JPav puts into his teams and research, as well as willingness to share those insights with the rest of us.