I think the stolen base system is broken

[MrHacktastic]

Granted i haven't played strato online very long but the SB percentages aren't working out at all. I am in the 1986 league and across the board elite SB guys like Henderson, Raines and Coleman can't get near 80% on SB's. Wayyyyyy too many pitchers have ridiculous HOLD ratings considering that is the same year Raines stole 70 bags was caught only 9, Coleman stole 107 and was caught 14. So far Coleman has been safe on 35 and caught 12, Raines has been safe on 77 and caught 27. I have SB's on Normal setting for most of the season.

All year average pitchers and catchers have been able to throw them out wayyy too often. Really irritates me. In my other 1986 league they are getting caught at an even higher percentage and I don't have them in that league.

I'm not sure if the SB system is set up this way to keep SB's down in more modern seasons but it doesn't play well at all in throwback seasons. Considering I like the older style of play and that is why I'm doing 1986 to begin with it amplifies it.

Also why is the SB setting system so basic? Why can I only set a players tendency to run as Normal, Agressive, or Very Aggressive. Obviously in real life players knew who to steal on which is the equivalent of ratings. They knew what catchers and pitchers and situations to run. That is what they did. Why can't I set my guys to be aggressive stealing 2nd base but to be conservative stealing 3rd?

That is it for my venting today. But I am looking league wide in both league and the SB doesn't work at all for 1986. How many pitchers really deserve a hold of -6 and would scare Rickey, Vince, or Tim from running? Ridiculous. Completely ridiculous.

[apolivka]

I think one of the keys is the ultra reluctance of most managers to play a + armed catcher. Look at the defensive ratings of all the catchers in the set--those guys all played in '86. Then look at the 12 teams in your league, and I'll bet you very few of the +1 or higher guys are on anyone's roster. Similar, but to a lesser extent, look at the +3 hold or higher pitchers. Unless they are really good, they don't get used all that much either. I think most managers feel that cutting off the running game is a key strategy, and if they do, league stolen base % numbers will pretty much _always_ be down. In effect, I don't really think the stolen base system is "broken", I think it's mostly "us".

That being said, you can steal a TON in '86 if you try hard enough. Here are two of my '86 speed teams:

516 steals (with the pitcher batting) and 90 wins:
http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/stratomatic/team/team_other.html?user_id=150122

551 steals and 94 wins:
http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/stratomatic/team/team_other.html?user_id=263985

And I think (but, I admit, have no real proof) that guys like Ricky and Raines actually didn't steal all that much off guys with great holds. They just stole guys blind that didn't, including many steals of 2nd and 3rd in the same inning. Coleman was another matter, he got on so infrequently that he must have stole on everyone pretty much regardless. :)

[MrHacktastic]

In my second league i'm in right now Raines is 13 out of 21 stealing. This man was safe 70-79 that year. SB setting are not detailed enough. People are abusing the strategy of having one very high - Hold rating in their rotation discouraging people from using an aggressive SB strategy. If you do you will waste an inning or two vs that starter and if you don't you waste all kinds of SB opportunities in the other 2 games that night. I am noticing this strategy is quite common.

[Ninersphan]

[quote:32aa66e3f5="Hackdog99"]In my second league i'm in right now Raines is 13 out of 21 stealing. This man was safe 70-79 that year. SB setting are not detailed enough. People are abusing the strategy of having one very high - Hold rating in their rotation discouraging people from using an aggressive SB strategy. If you do you will waste an inning or two vs that starter and if you don't you waste all kinds of SB opportunities in the other 2 games that night. I am noticing this strategy is quite common.[/quote:32aa66e3f5]

It's not that, Raines and Henderson were as successful as they were against the whole league, you are now squezzing them down into a sample size against better competition, from both leagues so their numbers will go down. They are simply facing better catchers than they did in real life.

It's that simple.

[apolivka]

Well, obviously it didn't discourage me in those teams shown above. I went "very aggressive" 100% of the time, and over half of the players were always set to "steal more" on their cards. Those teams were successful stealing 77% of the time and 74% of the time respectively. Do that and Raines easily steals 75+. Crap, Otis Nixon can almost steal 75 that way, and he can't hit!

When you can have pretty much your entire team able to do that, it's actually quite amazing how many runs you can score. That second team I posted was the #1 offense in the league and I played at Royals. The only downside that I saw was getting guys gunned down trying to steal home. It happened easily 20+ times on both those teams. The few guys with really good holds just isn't _that_ significant, IMO. If your team is built for speed, taking the foot off the gas even against great catcher and holds probably doesn't increase your chances of winning very much.

I don't think this strategy would work on many/any of the 20xx sets though, since after steroids the value of the stolen base went down quite a bit and the pool of high steal capable players just isn't there.

[MrHacktastic]

if I win a free credit I might try what you did myself. It looks fun I must say.

[toronto50]

i think instead of having the steal settings with semi-unknown results, i would rather set a stealing threshold---for instance--only steal if chance is 1 to 16...or whatever, u would pick your threshold number. much like setting a pitchers fatigue at f8, f7 etc. also a way to set steals to dont steal with 2 outs, or 1 out etc.

[MrHacktastic]

[quote:fad69af260="toronto50"]i think instead of having the steal settings with semi-unknown results, i would rather set a stealing threshold---for instance--only steal if chance is 1 to 16...or whatever, u would pick your threshold number. much like setting a pitchers fatigue at f8, f7 etc. also a way to set steals to dont steal with 2 outs, or 1 out etc.[/quote:fad69af260]

I agree with this. I don't think the current options for SB strategy are adequate. I can't find a setting that close to represents intelligent times to steal bags. Too often stealing 3rd for no reason or stealing when the odds are bad. Drives me crazy.