Thought I would do a bit more digging in the DD Actuals to put some numbers on the crisis. This ties to Weinberg's pricing assumptions on relief pitcher inning rating.
A word or 50 on method: I took DD actuals on the top 100 relievers based on price, at 100M. I eliminated any reliever who did not average at least 10 saves a season (eliminated some of the problem). And I then banded them according to RX rating (R1, R2, etc). I came up with a weighted average of their stats. Mainly to look at their innings.
[b:137030f6a1]Here's how folks are used:
[/b:137030f6a1]R1 - 75 IP average (215 seasons)
R2 - 91 IP average (948 seasons)
R3 - 106 IP avg (1229 seasons)
R4 - 135 IP avg (124 seasons)
R5 - 138 IP avg (203 seasons)
R4 is a winning strategy, with a W% of .501. R2 and R5 are .499. R3 .496. The only real loser here is R1 .480 (suggesting that they are priced at maybe 90 IP or more which is simply not happening at 100M). The closeness in W% of the others suggests appropriate pricing.
[b:137030f6a1]In terms of W/L/S/BS[/b:137030f6a1]
R1 - 3.9 / 4.3 / 28 / 7
R2 - 5.8 / 5.5 /20 / 7
R3 - 6.7 / 6.5 / 19 / 7
R4 - 8 / 7.7 / 21 / 8
R5 - 8.8 / 7.8 / 18 / 8
This backs up intuition. More saves = fewer decisions. Less IP = More "Maximize Closer" use (which produces more saves, fewer decisions). More IP = More decisions.
What I'm seeing is that pricing should not be as weinberg assumes it is. And probably isn't. But that the R1 guys should actually be cheaper, even though they are very good.
[/b]
POLL - Super-Reliever Usage
29 posts
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by PotKettleBlack » Mon Jan 23, 2012 4:46 pm
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by dharmabums » Mon Jan 23, 2012 4:55 pm
Good stuff PKB. And I think your comment on the other thread about trolling was right on. 8-)
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by PJ Axelsson » Mon Jan 23, 2012 5:05 pm
The big deal (and let's be honest, this is a fantasy stats game so big deal is a very relative term) is that beyond gaming the game for results, I'd like to see some numbers that make me think a successful team has some correlation to baseball reality.
At the end of the season, I like to see aces look like aces and bench players look like bench players. We've sure come a long way in terms of pricing, but the performance outliers still exist. Perhaps an option to turn normalization on or off would satisfy everyone? Some of us think a stat sheet looks ugly when Milt May has 500 at bats and 40 homers and when Dale Murray has 200+ innings pitched, sort of like when you do this to something familiar:
[img:94c6d56e8d]http://static.desktopnexus.com/thumbnails/610371-bigthumbnail.jpg[/img:94c6d56e8d]
At the end of the season, I like to see aces look like aces and bench players look like bench players. We've sure come a long way in terms of pricing, but the performance outliers still exist. Perhaps an option to turn normalization on or off would satisfy everyone? Some of us think a stat sheet looks ugly when Milt May has 500 at bats and 40 homers and when Dale Murray has 200+ innings pitched, sort of like when you do this to something familiar:
[img:94c6d56e8d]http://static.desktopnexus.com/thumbnails/610371-bigthumbnail.jpg[/img:94c6d56e8d]
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by geekor » Mon Jan 23, 2012 5:14 pm
every time this comes up....
there is no breaking, or even bending of rules here for the "strat" game.
Strat rules are simple for RP, pitch only 2 games in a row then you must rest, or come in fatigued.
So the most a RP can pitch is 2/3 games or 108 games.
So even an R2 can pitch (theoretically) 216 innings completely unaffected by fatigue.
Your problem lies in the strat rules pure and simple. Again, if you want RP to be help to an innings limit, best be doing it to SP and position players as well.
there is no breaking, or even bending of rules here for the "strat" game.
Strat rules are simple for RP, pitch only 2 games in a row then you must rest, or come in fatigued.
So the most a RP can pitch is 2/3 games or 108 games.
So even an R2 can pitch (theoretically) 216 innings completely unaffected by fatigue.
Your problem lies in the strat rules pure and simple. Again, if you want RP to be help to an innings limit, best be doing it to SP and position players as well.
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by PotKettleBlack » Mon Jan 23, 2012 5:22 pm
[quote:fa49eb1e25="geekor"]every time this comes up....
there is no breaking, or even bending of rules here for the "strat" game.
Strat rules are simple for RP, pitch only 2 games in a row then you must rest, or come in fatigued.
So the most a RP can pitch is 2/3 games or 108 games.
So even an R2 can pitch (theoretically) 216 innings completely unaffected by fatigue.
Your problem lies in the strat rules pure and simple. Again, if you want RP to be help to an innings limit, best be doing it to SP and position players as well.[/quote:fa49eb1e25]
Agree. And the 216 is a theoretical limit, as it would be highly unusual for two games to be close enough to merit quality relief pitching, then a game off, then two games close enough for quality relief, then a game off, for the entire season. The top 4 R2s average (100M cap):
Wagner: 104 IP
Rivera: 110 IP
Percival: 108
Sutter: 131 (15 uses, as everyone uses the R3 Sutter)
Everyone else averages less than 91.
there is no breaking, or even bending of rules here for the "strat" game.
Strat rules are simple for RP, pitch only 2 games in a row then you must rest, or come in fatigued.
So the most a RP can pitch is 2/3 games or 108 games.
So even an R2 can pitch (theoretically) 216 innings completely unaffected by fatigue.
Your problem lies in the strat rules pure and simple. Again, if you want RP to be help to an innings limit, best be doing it to SP and position players as well.[/quote:fa49eb1e25]
Agree. And the 216 is a theoretical limit, as it would be highly unusual for two games to be close enough to merit quality relief pitching, then a game off, then two games close enough for quality relief, then a game off, for the entire season. The top 4 R2s average (100M cap):
Wagner: 104 IP
Rivera: 110 IP
Percival: 108
Sutter: 131 (15 uses, as everyone uses the R3 Sutter)
Everyone else averages less than 91.
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by mikemartinfl » Mon Jan 23, 2012 5:48 pm
Don't these super reliever usages scew the data when compiling an average?
In my opinion, its a video game based on reality. The only usage limitations are pricing. If someone wants to use a super reliever, there are negatives to that strategy, it's not foolproof.
If you want to confine this stuff and implement rules and restrictions, net play is a great alternative. My $.02
In my opinion, its a video game based on reality. The only usage limitations are pricing. If someone wants to use a super reliever, there are negatives to that strategy, it's not foolproof.
If you want to confine this stuff and implement rules and restrictions, net play is a great alternative. My $.02
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by doug_tucker10 » Mon Jan 23, 2012 6:13 pm
I don't use the super reliever strategy and i don't care if people try to maximize reliever innings...i may have intentionally tried to use it a couple of times but it didn't yield any special results from what i recall so i must have had my settings incorrectly adjusted. The over the top offensive numbers by Bonds and other noted sluggers is no more realistic to me than using the super reliever strategy. I'm most interested in HAL being tweaked to help manage a better game overall.
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