Waiver order correlation to winning

[Honyox R Us]

[quote:e244512a47="Mr. Baseball World"]Quick point: The difference between 47% and 53% is 76-86 vs. being 86-76. That is no small difference.

More on the topic later......too complicated for a quick answer.[/quote:e244512a47]

Exactly. As I stated before, a 53 win % is somewhere between a 12-13% improvement... potentially the difference between making the playoffs or not.

[Valen]

I know I am old and they have this new math stuff.
But when I went to school 53-47=6

If there were no difference that would mean draft did not matter at all.
Seriously, do you want it to be to that point where your skill at filling out a draft card does not matter at all? I think there is a lot of luck involved in the draft but if I ever reach a point where I believe it is all luck would lose all interest.

And I do think the pool is deep enough now you can recover if you put some effort in to it. Even with good drafts after I eliminate players not really needed I have 30-40 mil to spend. Done properly that is 2 or 3 good platoons.

I also believe part of the reason some cannot recover from a bad draft is they are unwilling to trade. In one recent league I walked away from autodraft with 2 quality CFers. I could live with either one so I shopped them both. There were at least 3 teams with overmatched CFers who could have been helped by either but could not even generate a discussion. In most recent team draft was terrible. But I did walk away with Dickey. Nev came calling with a package including 2 good players. I really wanted to give the new Dickey a whirl but accepted the offer because it made sense giving me a starter at one position and part of a platoon at another.

Recovery means working trades that benefit both teams and identifying value in what is on FA market.

I also think you have to be realistic. Nev made the point that 200 mil is the same 2 dozen or so suspects in almost every league. But many of those are very experienced and good suspects. I would like to blame every losing record on a bad draft and bad luck. But when every league is half full of Nevs and Saltys and similar quality players winning 47% may be as much about how good your opponents are as it is how bad your luck is.

Well at least for others. When I don't win it is always just bad luck. :wink: :wink:

[JOSEPHKENDALL]

Valen - you make a good point about trades. I have had similar reactions to trying to trade recently. It seems like my offers have to be very much in favor of the other manager to get them to trade. And at times they still will not.

I had a manager tonight to tell me on my offer to him:

"More than fair...I don't really have much need for another CF, and I'm not
a fan of Carlton. Much fairer offer than what I usually get from most
managers."

I believe because several try to take advantage in a trade that managers are unlikely to trade if it is fairly even since they think that they are being taken advantage of. I try hard to examine the park and the need of the other team and make an offer that helps us both. Of course, everyone has their take on a player's true worth.

In my opinion, there are certain positions where it is hard to platoon based on the park you selected and the players left after the autodraft. I have found this out even recently.

How well does HAL do at handling platoons?

[macnole]

[quote:bf8711f780="nevdully's"]You know I composed a response and deleted it.

Came back to this thread by accident....and composed another response...and deleted it. Why?

Because I realized that 99.9% of the time once this community forms an opinion, no one, no words, nothing, will change their minds.[/quote:bf8711f780]

Nev, it's ok that you never change your mind once you have an opinion, no matter what is said.

As for the community, it's just made of individuals making consumer choices with their time and money. It's nothing personal, not right or wrong, there is no absolute truth on skill/luck/style--it's a matter of entertainment for time and money spent...which are both precious.

:D