Clutch rating, during player evaluation
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by drfreeze49 » Mon Feb 27, 2012 11:40 am
I can tell you in a recent three game series 40 batters (counting both teams) came to bat in clutch situations...to me that is significant...but hey what do I know :)
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by PotKettleBlack » Mon Feb 27, 2012 12:01 pm
[quote:482a128d73="drfreeze49"]I can tell you in a recent three game series 40 batters (counting both teams) came to bat in clutch situations...to me that is significant...but hey what do I know :)[/quote:482a128d73]
So, take Salmon, subtract 5 singles, look at Valentine, add 6, and who do you want. And that's ~10% of the time.
40 clutch PAs in a 3 game series consisting of 27 outs per side, so 54 per game, and 162 outs. Not PA, outs. This seems higher than 10%, but what was the highest number of clutch PA by any individual lineup slot over the series? 3?
If I were playing in an infinitely customizable league, I'd have my five-eight hitters be positive clutch. HAL will give the IBB to a clutch hitter followed by a non-clutch hitter. Five protects the 4 hitter (who doesn't need to be clutch as much), six protects five from being walked, 7 and 8, it's nice to have.
The effects, as I've observed, even with frequency are fairly marginal without a large swing in clutch rating. 6/216 is not that large.
So, take Salmon, subtract 5 singles, look at Valentine, add 6, and who do you want. And that's ~10% of the time.
40 clutch PAs in a 3 game series consisting of 27 outs per side, so 54 per game, and 162 outs. Not PA, outs. This seems higher than 10%, but what was the highest number of clutch PA by any individual lineup slot over the series? 3?
If I were playing in an infinitely customizable league, I'd have my five-eight hitters be positive clutch. HAL will give the IBB to a clutch hitter followed by a non-clutch hitter. Five protects the 4 hitter (who doesn't need to be clutch as much), six protects five from being walked, 7 and 8, it's nice to have.
The effects, as I've observed, even with frequency are fairly marginal without a large swing in clutch rating. 6/216 is not that large.
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by macnole » Mon Feb 27, 2012 1:35 pm
and I agree...another way to say it in this case, unless I've done this too quickly...
40 batters...but half the time off the pitcher's card nominally, so 20 hitter card events...
...18 players so approx 1 hitter card roll in a clutch situation per player in a 3 game series...
...54x3 game series...so 54 events...
108 possible outcomes per event...let's say a -6 clutch...so 6/108 chance each time, times 54 tries.
324/108 or 3 outcomes of negative clutch results.
Not much for a whole season. Even if it were off the batter card every time. 6 outcomes.
Kind of like worrying about that 40 grams of sugar by drinking a diet coke with a whopper and fries.
40 batters...but half the time off the pitcher's card nominally, so 20 hitter card events...
...18 players so approx 1 hitter card roll in a clutch situation per player in a 3 game series...
...54x3 game series...so 54 events...
108 possible outcomes per event...let's say a -6 clutch...so 6/108 chance each time, times 54 tries.
324/108 or 3 outcomes of negative clutch results.
Not much for a whole season. Even if it were off the batter card every time. 6 outcomes.
Kind of like worrying about that 40 grams of sugar by drinking a diet coke with a whopper and fries.
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by PotKettleBlack » Mon Feb 27, 2012 2:21 pm
[quote:c7e533a9b0="macnole"]and I agree...another way to say it in this case, unless I've done this too quickly...
40 batters...but half the time off the pitcher's card nominally, so 20 hitter card events...
...18 players so approx 1 hitter card roll in a clutch situation per player in a 3 game series...
...54x3 game series...so 54 events...
108 possible outcomes per event...let's say a -6 clutch...so 6/108 chance each time, times 54 tries.
324/108 or 3 outcomes of negative clutch results.
Not much for a whole season. Even if it were off the batter card every time. 6 outcomes.
Kind of like worrying about that 40 grams of sugar by drinking a diet coke with a whopper and fries.[/quote:c7e533a9b0]
Exactly. If it were unbalanced (I think it is, someone produced numbers to that effect), then the gap between a -10 player and a +10 player gets a lot larger if they're in the magic spot. Let's unbalance it a bit, and suggest that one player collects 4 clutch PA per series (extreme with a purpose). That's 216 clutch PA in the season (again, we're doing the extreme for a purpose).
Of those 216, our +10 guy gets his outcome affected (positively) 10 times (216 PA splits evenly to 108 each pitcher/batter). So, 10 extra hits over normal expectation, generally run scoring hits. That's ~1 win in real life MLB. He's 2 wins better than the -10 guy in the same magic hole.
But remember, we did this as an extreme example. 4 clutch PA/series over the course of the whole season.
I am in a league that has a division experimenting with clutch. I dunno if they are tracking the clutch occurrences. But I'm pretty sure the magic 5 hole is not producing 1.33 occurrences a game for one player over the course of the season.
That said, I still like me some Johnny Callison in a LH bomber park.
40 batters...but half the time off the pitcher's card nominally, so 20 hitter card events...
...18 players so approx 1 hitter card roll in a clutch situation per player in a 3 game series...
...54x3 game series...so 54 events...
108 possible outcomes per event...let's say a -6 clutch...so 6/108 chance each time, times 54 tries.
324/108 or 3 outcomes of negative clutch results.
Not much for a whole season. Even if it were off the batter card every time. 6 outcomes.
Kind of like worrying about that 40 grams of sugar by drinking a diet coke with a whopper and fries.[/quote:c7e533a9b0]
Exactly. If it were unbalanced (I think it is, someone produced numbers to that effect), then the gap between a -10 player and a +10 player gets a lot larger if they're in the magic spot. Let's unbalance it a bit, and suggest that one player collects 4 clutch PA per series (extreme with a purpose). That's 216 clutch PA in the season (again, we're doing the extreme for a purpose).
Of those 216, our +10 guy gets his outcome affected (positively) 10 times (216 PA splits evenly to 108 each pitcher/batter). So, 10 extra hits over normal expectation, generally run scoring hits. That's ~1 win in real life MLB. He's 2 wins better than the -10 guy in the same magic hole.
But remember, we did this as an extreme example. 4 clutch PA/series over the course of the whole season.
I am in a league that has a division experimenting with clutch. I dunno if they are tracking the clutch occurrences. But I'm pretty sure the magic 5 hole is not producing 1.33 occurrences a game for one player over the course of the season.
That said, I still like me some Johnny Callison in a LH bomber park.
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by macnole » Mon Feb 27, 2012 3:02 pm
Yes it's worthwhile to make the extreme comparison for some contextual boundaries. Good way to show it.
Like you, I'm not poo-pooing clutch...but it is a niche concern, not a primary concern. Like batting order adjustment and maybe small ball effects. So yeah, Callison batting 6th in a lefty park can be a good thing.
It sure will (will it ever?) be nice when the new interface tallies the clutch appearances as part of normal stats.
Like you, I'm not poo-pooing clutch...but it is a niche concern, not a primary concern. Like batting order adjustment and maybe small ball effects. So yeah, Callison batting 6th in a lefty park can be a good thing.
It sure will (will it ever?) be nice when the new interface tallies the clutch appearances as part of normal stats.
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by macnole » Mon Feb 27, 2012 3:17 pm
[quote:6293534cf0="Munich_Man"]Gee, wouldn't it be nice if we could actually search for said thread? :evil:[/quote:6293534cf0]
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:cry:
Too much to do and not enough Bernie. God Bless him.
[size=24:6293534cf0]The Boards are being rebuilt![/size:6293534cf0]
[size=18:6293534cf0]The site rebuild is coming! [/size:6293534cf0]
[b:6293534cf0]The boards may get a facelift.[/b:6293534cf0]
[i:6293534cf0]The site is being tweaked soon.[/i:6293534cf0]
[b:6293534cf0][size=12:6293534cf0]New cards are on the way.[/size:6293534cf0][/b:6293534cf0]
[size=24:6293534cf0]SOM is taking over TSN SOM-O![/size:6293534cf0]
[b:6293534cf0]The site rebuild is coming![/b:6293534cf0]
[size=9:6293534cf0]The site rebuild is coming. [/size:6293534cf0]
[size=9:6293534cf0]Almost here.[/size:6293534cf0]
:cry:
Too much to do and not enough Bernie. God Bless him.
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by PotKettleBlack » Mon Feb 27, 2012 3:34 pm
[quote:2d9190368b="macnole"]It sure will (will it ever?) be nice when the new interface tallies the clutch appearances as part of normal stats.[/quote:2d9190368b]
No it won't. Since we can figure, by math, that clutch is secondary, we don't really need the data to support it. And it lets the mathematically challenged off the hook. I'd rather they continue to overvalue clutch for at least a bit longer.
No it won't. Since we can figure, by math, that clutch is secondary, we don't really need the data to support it. And it lets the mathematically challenged off the hook. I'd rather they continue to overvalue clutch for at least a bit longer.
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by Semper Gumby » Mon Feb 27, 2012 9:55 pm
[url]http://ballparkhomerun.com/2011/03/01/readers-question-clutch-hitting/[/url]
[quote:cb527406d1]It turns out that roughly 11% of all plate appearances would be what Strat-O-Matic defines as a clutch hitting opportunity. Using a 6,000 plate appearance season, that would be 660 plate appearances. Of those 660 plate appearances, roughly 18% of those would be be with runners on second and third where a single would score both runners.[/quote:cb527406d1]
[quote:cb527406d1]It turns out that roughly 11% of all plate appearances would be what Strat-O-Matic defines as a clutch hitting opportunity. Using a 6,000 plate appearance season, that would be 660 plate appearances. Of those 660 plate appearances, roughly 18% of those would be be with runners on second and third where a single would score both runners.[/quote:cb527406d1]
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by PotKettleBlack » Mon Feb 27, 2012 10:31 pm
[quote:ff54688526="Semper Gumby USMC"][url]http://ballparkhomerun.com/2011/03/01/readers-question-clutch-hitting/[/url]
[quote:ff54688526]It turns out that roughly 11% of all plate appearances would be what Strat-O-Matic defines as a clutch hitting opportunity. Using a 6,000 plate appearance season, that would be 660 plate appearances. Of those 660 plate appearances, roughly 18% of those would be be with runners on second and third where a single would score both runners.[/quote:ff54688526][/quote:ff54688526]
Using a more accurate 650 PA for a player, that's 71 clutch PA and 35.5 from a hitter's card. You can work out how often that'll land on a clutch affected roll.
[quote:ff54688526]It turns out that roughly 11% of all plate appearances would be what Strat-O-Matic defines as a clutch hitting opportunity. Using a 6,000 plate appearance season, that would be 660 plate appearances. Of those 660 plate appearances, roughly 18% of those would be be with runners on second and third where a single would score both runners.[/quote:ff54688526][/quote:ff54688526]
Using a more accurate 650 PA for a player, that's 71 clutch PA and 35.5 from a hitter's card. You can work out how often that'll land on a clutch affected roll.
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