8 teams currently between 31-35 & 35-31.
NLD stands for Nouveau Ligue D'hockey
NLD 30 - Smell the glove!
by Semper Gumby » Tue May 01, 2012 6:29 am
7 unearned on 14 errors at home
28 unearned runs on 33 errors on the road :shock:
The game board engine outcomes needs a little more investigating :evil:
28 unearned runs on 33 errors on the road :shock:
The game board engine outcomes needs a little more investigating :evil:
- Semper Gumby
- Posts: 55
- Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2012 2:34 pm
by joethejet » Wed May 02, 2012 12:59 am
Ratings posted. It's a bit early as the records in particular are hard to make heads or tails of. REally the same for the RS and RA. There haven't been enough games to see the final separations really. But, here they are anyway.
Some caveats:
- These are ratings, not necessarily my opinions on these teams.
- Teams with cheap/splitty RPs that are used properly will over perform their ratings
- Teams with really good/bad fielding seem to vary more often than teams with average-ish fielding
- Teams that crush LHP tend to underperform unless they're seeing a ton of LHP.
- Teams with good one run records tend to over perform ratings and vice versa
That said, here goes
[code:1:f33e5f3df5]
Team Ov Ovrl Rtg Rec Dif
Smokey. 2525 1 6 -5 C
BigMahn 2455 2 6 -4 W
Dtigers 2382 3 7 -4 E
JoeTJet 2342 3 5 -2 E
JeepDrv 2204 5 4 1 W
BigAlrc 2116 6 7 -1 E
Keyzick 2051 7 6 1 C
Stoney. 2008 7 6 1 W
SemperG 1993 8 6 2 E
ArrylTr 1965 8 3 5 W
Zim13.. 1882 9 5 4 C
nythawk 1802 10 5 5 C
Team Of O Rtg Run Dif
Dtigers 8307 2 3 -1 E
BigMahn 8080 4 3 1 W
Smokey. 7840 6 7 -1 C
JoeTJet 7831 6 5 1 E
SemperG 7609 8 2 6 E
Keyzick 7608 8 8 0 C
Stoney. 7551 9 10 -1 W
nythawk 7538 9 7 2 C
ArrylTr 7478 10 3 7 W
JeepDrv 7449 10 8 2 W
BigAlrc 7443 10 6 4 E
Zim13.. 7116 12 6 6 C
Team PF P+F Rtg Run Dif
Zim13.. 5234 2 4 -2 C
JeepDrv 5244 2 3 -1 W
Smokey. 5315 3 2 1 C
BigAlrc 5327 3 7 -4 E
JoeTJet 5489 5 8 -3 E
ArrylTr 5513 5 5 0 W
Stoney. 5542 6 6 0 W
Keyzick 5557 6 3 3 C
SemperG 5616 7 10 -3 E
BigMahn 5625 7 4 3 W
nythawk 5737 8 4 4 C
Dtigers 5925 10 11 -1 E
[/code:1:f33e5f3df5]
Records are so close, There isn't a whole lot to say other than clearly AT has made good use of his one run record to over perform his rating signficantly. Primarily due to better than expected offensive output. Some of that will be explained when I post the park ratings. AT is not at the bottom there, but middle of the pack meaning he's as better in as many parks as he's bad. Obviously Smokey's -8 and Big M's -7 in one runners has an impact. DT is another relatively park dependant team who should probably be better at home than they've benn.
For offense, again the runs scored are close except at the edges. Zim is way over what would be expected. AT even more so. Semper is also high. No one is really too low, but again, I expect some things to shake out here.
Pitching/D is performing the closest to expectations but numbers are so close that things could change in a couple of series. Hawk had been better than expected and Big A less. Some others, JTJ and Semper, are big out of whack too.
Park Comparison. You get +1 if you're better than the other team in your/their park and -1 if you're worse. If things are close then it's a tie and no points are awarded. The most you can be is +22.
[code:1:f33e5f3df5]
Team +/- Div
Smokey. 17 C
JTJ.... 12 E
Jeep... 8 W
Big M.. 7 W
DT..... 6 E
big A.. 6 E
At..... 0 W
stoney. -3 W
Keyzick -4 C
Semper. -9 E
zim.... -18 C
Hawk... -22 C
[/code:1:f33e5f3df5]
Some caveats:
- These are ratings, not necessarily my opinions on these teams.
- Teams with cheap/splitty RPs that are used properly will over perform their ratings
- Teams with really good/bad fielding seem to vary more often than teams with average-ish fielding
- Teams that crush LHP tend to underperform unless they're seeing a ton of LHP.
- Teams with good one run records tend to over perform ratings and vice versa
That said, here goes
[code:1:f33e5f3df5]
Team Ov Ovrl Rtg Rec Dif
Smokey. 2525 1 6 -5 C
BigMahn 2455 2 6 -4 W
Dtigers 2382 3 7 -4 E
JoeTJet 2342 3 5 -2 E
JeepDrv 2204 5 4 1 W
BigAlrc 2116 6 7 -1 E
Keyzick 2051 7 6 1 C
Stoney. 2008 7 6 1 W
SemperG 1993 8 6 2 E
ArrylTr 1965 8 3 5 W
Zim13.. 1882 9 5 4 C
nythawk 1802 10 5 5 C
Team Of O Rtg Run Dif
Dtigers 8307 2 3 -1 E
BigMahn 8080 4 3 1 W
Smokey. 7840 6 7 -1 C
JoeTJet 7831 6 5 1 E
SemperG 7609 8 2 6 E
Keyzick 7608 8 8 0 C
Stoney. 7551 9 10 -1 W
nythawk 7538 9 7 2 C
ArrylTr 7478 10 3 7 W
JeepDrv 7449 10 8 2 W
BigAlrc 7443 10 6 4 E
Zim13.. 7116 12 6 6 C
Team PF P+F Rtg Run Dif
Zim13.. 5234 2 4 -2 C
JeepDrv 5244 2 3 -1 W
Smokey. 5315 3 2 1 C
BigAlrc 5327 3 7 -4 E
JoeTJet 5489 5 8 -3 E
ArrylTr 5513 5 5 0 W
Stoney. 5542 6 6 0 W
Keyzick 5557 6 3 3 C
SemperG 5616 7 10 -3 E
BigMahn 5625 7 4 3 W
nythawk 5737 8 4 4 C
Dtigers 5925 10 11 -1 E
[/code:1:f33e5f3df5]
Records are so close, There isn't a whole lot to say other than clearly AT has made good use of his one run record to over perform his rating signficantly. Primarily due to better than expected offensive output. Some of that will be explained when I post the park ratings. AT is not at the bottom there, but middle of the pack meaning he's as better in as many parks as he's bad. Obviously Smokey's -8 and Big M's -7 in one runners has an impact. DT is another relatively park dependant team who should probably be better at home than they've benn.
For offense, again the runs scored are close except at the edges. Zim is way over what would be expected. AT even more so. Semper is also high. No one is really too low, but again, I expect some things to shake out here.
Pitching/D is performing the closest to expectations but numbers are so close that things could change in a couple of series. Hawk had been better than expected and Big A less. Some others, JTJ and Semper, are big out of whack too.
Park Comparison. You get +1 if you're better than the other team in your/their park and -1 if you're worse. If things are close then it's a tie and no points are awarded. The most you can be is +22.
[code:1:f33e5f3df5]
Team +/- Div
Smokey. 17 C
JTJ.... 12 E
Jeep... 8 W
Big M.. 7 W
DT..... 6 E
big A.. 6 E
At..... 0 W
stoney. -3 W
Keyzick -4 C
Semper. -9 E
zim.... -18 C
Hawk... -22 C
[/code:1:f33e5f3df5]
- joethejet
- Posts: 55
- Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2012 2:34 pm
by Semper Gumby » Wed May 02, 2012 6:02 am
[quote:da191c5d15="joethejet"]AT, yeah, nothing new for the NLD. Usually have a ton of teams close.
Semper, maybe you need to check the rest of the league. I don't think I have the same skew.
jet[/quote:da191c5d15]
Joe
When I last checked the league, your team did allow more unearned runs on the road. ;)
Across 40+ teams spanning nearly a decade, the theory holds up amongst my winning and losing clubs.
Unless the rolls work across my span, the game engine ability to add +1 or +2 to a roll isn't hard.
Just like the game engine normalized power hitters in 2003 :)
Semper, maybe you need to check the rest of the league. I don't think I have the same skew.
jet[/quote:da191c5d15]
Joe
When I last checked the league, your team did allow more unearned runs on the road. ;)
Across 40+ teams spanning nearly a decade, the theory holds up amongst my winning and losing clubs.
Unless the rolls work across my span, the game engine ability to add +1 or +2 to a roll isn't hard.
Just like the game engine normalized power hitters in 2003 :)
- Semper Gumby
- Posts: 55
- Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2012 2:34 pm
by Semper Gumby » Wed May 02, 2012 6:10 am
Joe
Thanks for the ratings
Just one comment on the assumptions / caveats:
Are the pitching ratings based on projected innings pitched e.g., cheap RPs?
My relief pitchers combined pitch less than Robertson did after the first week :)
Thanks for the ratings
Just one comment on the assumptions / caveats:
Are the pitching ratings based on projected innings pitched e.g., cheap RPs?
My relief pitchers combined pitch less than Robertson did after the first week :)
- Semper Gumby
- Posts: 55
- Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2012 2:34 pm
by joethejet » Wed May 02, 2012 11:28 am
[quote:c27c9d96f6="Chief_Wahoo"]Joe
Thanks for the ratings
Just one comment on the assumptions / caveats:
Are the pitching ratings based on projected innings pitched e.g., cheap RPs?
My relief pitchers combined pitch less than Robertson did after the first week :)[/quote:c27c9d96f6]
No, I'm using actual IP for pitching.
The reason cheap RPs can skew things is that ratings don't assume that Hal will use them properly. If Hal does then you'll get better results than anticipated.
As for errors, I've made 55% more errors at home. The fact that I have given up few earned runs is probably more a function of timing than the engine. Or, that something else is causing more HITS to happen on the road.
Jet
Thanks for the ratings
Just one comment on the assumptions / caveats:
Are the pitching ratings based on projected innings pitched e.g., cheap RPs?
My relief pitchers combined pitch less than Robertson did after the first week :)[/quote:c27c9d96f6]
No, I'm using actual IP for pitching.
The reason cheap RPs can skew things is that ratings don't assume that Hal will use them properly. If Hal does then you'll get better results than anticipated.
As for errors, I've made 55% more errors at home. The fact that I have given up few earned runs is probably more a function of timing than the engine. Or, that something else is causing more HITS to happen on the road.
Jet
- joethejet
- Posts: 55
- Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2012 2:34 pm
by joethejet » Wed May 02, 2012 6:24 pm
[quote:ad9467717c="bigmahon"]Interesting as always Joe. Thank you!
Your ratings are consistent with my league best pythag. But as always my W/L record is at odds with your magic. Go figure! :shock: :lol:[/quote:ad9467717c]
Yeah, you're probably hoping for a bad rating so you'll do well! ;) As I mentioned (I don't know if this is luck or not) when a team does well or poorly in one runners there is usually a big variance from the rating. When they are within 3 or so of .500 then the ratings tend to be more accurate. So, either the ratings don't peg one run teams very well or there's luck involved. ;)
Here are the fielding ratings for each team. Note, I did all these before Big A made his most recent moves.
[code:1:ad9467717c]
Big A.. 152
Jeep... 241
AT..... 264
Hawk... 328
Zim.... 407
JTJ.... 446
Smoke.. 450
Stoney. 470
Keyzick 473
Big M.. 534
Semper. 647
DT..... 654
[/code:1:ad9467717c]
Your ratings are consistent with my league best pythag. But as always my W/L record is at odds with your magic. Go figure! :shock: :lol:[/quote:ad9467717c]
Yeah, you're probably hoping for a bad rating so you'll do well! ;) As I mentioned (I don't know if this is luck or not) when a team does well or poorly in one runners there is usually a big variance from the rating. When they are within 3 or so of .500 then the ratings tend to be more accurate. So, either the ratings don't peg one run teams very well or there's luck involved. ;)
Here are the fielding ratings for each team. Note, I did all these before Big A made his most recent moves.
[code:1:ad9467717c]
Big A.. 152
Jeep... 241
AT..... 264
Hawk... 328
Zim.... 407
JTJ.... 446
Smoke.. 450
Stoney. 470
Keyzick 473
Big M.. 534
Semper. 647
DT..... 654
[/code:1:ad9467717c]
- joethejet
- Posts: 55
- Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2012 2:34 pm
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