What player can you get more ab's out of?

[ClowntimeIsOver]

regardless of the difference in their real life ABs (neither has more than 600 PAs), if they play full time when healthy (start every game and never get removed):

Over a full season, not counting post-season, an injury-2 player will miss about 189 innings (full games plus parts of games), and an injury-3 guy will miss about 270 innings.

The formula is complicated, but a good rule of thumb is this (applies only to players with fewer than 600 PAs):

Subtract the injury rating from 23. Multiply the result by half the injury rating. Multiply the result by 9 innings.

Example for an injury-3:

23-3 = 20. 20 times 3/2 = 30. 30 times 9 =270 innings. Again, that's if they start and finish every game when healthy. The numbers will be lower if you occasionally remove them from the line-up or remove them in the middle of games.

Important caveat: The higher the injury rating, the higher the standard deviation. So with a higher injury rating, you run a bigger risk of lots more innings missed if you're "unlucky" (i.e., you have a bad bell-curve year with the player, in terms of standard deviation). The formula above gives the AVERAGE over all seasons, but in any given season the standard deviation could kick in and give much better or much worse results.

[AeroDave10]

Wachovia,

Is this based on empirical evidence, an estimation, or some internal knowledge of the game engine?

[ClowntimeIsOver]

When I was "between jobs" after the crash of '08-'09, I had, well, a lot of time on my hands. I spent about 20 hours over a week or two developing a formula. It was very rigorous. The message board thread is back in August 2009, if I remember correctly, where I describe in excruciating, boring detail the basis for the formula, which was very complicated. I'm confident the results are very, very close to the reality.

The "rule of thumb" gives a good rough estimate of the results of the formula, but the formula itself is the exact method. (The rule of thumb slightly underestimates missed innings for injury-5 and 6, but not much).

Please understand that the formula is based on "an infinite number of seasons", so to speak, and only gives an AVERAGE, not a standard deviation. It also presumes that HAL's dice-rolls are absolutely random in regard to injuries, i.e., that the game engine doesn't tweak the rolls as it does, say, for home-field batting.

Thanks for asking, AeroDave.

[ClowntimeIsOver]

One more thing: The MOST important input in the formula is this: If an average player played full-time for 162 games, how many PAs would he have?

The formula takes that number, which you have to estimate (I think I used 680 or 700 or something, I can't remember), and then DISCOUNTS that number for each injury rating.

In other words, a guy who always bats first will have more PAs than a guy who always bats last. The formula gives an average, so it fits a 5th of 9 batter the best, and injuries will slightly increase the higher the guy tends to bat in the line-up, and slightly decrease the lower he bats in the line-up.

The formula allows you to input your own number for full-time PAs, or for a platoon guy with half as many PAs, etc. Roughly, if a guy plays only half the time, he'll have half the injured innings -- but not exactly, for reasons too boring to go into here (but which were addressed in the two threads where i originally posted this).

[coyote303]

[quote:4919369ff4="melgibsonfan"]Based off 2011 regular season stats, what player could play more games in the stratomatic season without getting injured?

Player A- Injury 3, 400 ab's.
Player B- Injury 2, 200 ab's[/quote:4919369ff4]

The ABs are irrelevant since they are under <600 AB+BB

To answer your question, it depends what you mean by "Injury 3" and "Injury 2."

1. injury 3 (or 2) = If you meant the dice roll needed to get injured, then player A will get injured--on average--twice as much as player B.

2. injury 3 (or 2) = If you meant the injury rating, then player A will get injured 50 percent more than player B.

Note to wachovia07. I'm confident you came up with a good formula, but I don't think you put it down as you meant to in your post. The way it reads, it looks like the higher the injury rating, the less the person is going to get injured.

[ClowntimeIsOver]

Coyote:

I wrote

"Over a full season, not counting post-season, an injury-2 player will miss about 189 innings (full games plus parts of games), and an injury-3 guy will miss about 270 innings."

Injury 3 (meaning on a 4 roll or a 10 roll) misses more innings than injury 2 (meaning on a 3 or a 11).

i don't understand what you wrote.

[coyote303]

[quote="wachovia07"]Coyote:[quote:7bc8843901]

I wrote

"Over a full season, not counting post-season, an injury-2 player will miss about 189 innings (full games plus parts of games), and an injury-3 guy will miss about 270 innings."

Injury 3 (meaning on a 4 roll or a 10 roll) misses more innings than injury 2 (meaning on a 3 or a 11).

i don't understand what you wrote.[/quote:7bc8843901]

My bad. I was reading the 3/2 in your original example as a constant and missed that the 3 was the injury rating. Oops!

I really like how your formula reflects that your injuries don't quite go up linearly since the more you are injured the less chance you have to get injured.

[ClowntimeIsOver]

[quote:f725c37e83="coyote303"] injuries don't quite go up linearly since the more you are injured the less chance you have to get injured.[/quote:f725c37e83]

Right -- that was one of the hardest things to work into it

also, for the last 15 games of the year, with each game, the average length of an injury keeps decreasing, till by game 162 a 15-game injury equals "rest of game" -- so that's also a difficult detail to work into a formula for "average" injury time

thanks