BACK TO 1985 - Finals - London Knights win championship!

[BC Manager]

[quote:9b414b402f="Sykes25"][quote:9b414b402f]but I agree with the thinking that offense is that much harder to produce in Fenway.[/quote:9b414b402f]

You folks really need to get a grip on this here. If I get time, I will post pitching and hitting stats from all of my Fenway teams and put them up against a sample of my 45,000 murphy teams. Teams in Fenway score more runs and give up more runs.[/quote:9b414b402f]

I really disagree, Sykes. I strongly believe the HR rating of a park weighs much more than the singles rating for two basic reasons -- a HR has much more impact than a single, and cards never have more than 5 BP single chances, while many hitters have 8 BP HR's on their cards.

Having said that, let's compare Bell and McReynolds a little more closely:

BP HR: 1-16 (Murph)
McReynolds hit 45 in 646 PA's(about 7 HR's per 100 PA's)

BP HR: 1-9 (Fen)
Bell hit 42 in 724 PA's(about 6 HR's per 100 PA's)

BP Singles 1-0 (Murph)
McReynolds hit 100 singles in 646 PA's (about 15.5 per 100 PA's)

BP Singles 1-16 (Fen)
Bell hit 127 in 724 PA's (about 17.5 per 100 PA's)

I'm not sure exactly what to conclude about this. McReynolds averaged 1 more HR per 100 PA's, which would be somewhat attributable to the BP difference. Bell averagd 2 more singles per 100 PA's which would be somewhat attributable to the BP difference.

As for other numbers:

2B: McReynolds 5.9/100; Bell 5.5/100
3B: McR 0.6/100; Bell 0.8/100
BB: McR 7/100; Bell 6/100
SB McR, 2; Bell 6 (w/ 7 CS)
R: McR 16/100; Bell 17/100
RBI: McR 18/100; Bell 18/100

Bell did lead the league in GIDP's (29). Don't know how many McR had but it was less than 21.

I still think it's too close to call. Anyone else have a different take on these numbers?

[albert2b]

All due respect Sykes, and your 45,000 teams, but unless you had the same exact players, each with the same exact seasons on your Fenway and a Murph teams...all while playing simeltaneously in the same exact league, it's impossible to use that method to accurately judge which park generates more offense. That's because each team/league dynamic is different from year to year.

Obviously, it is not impossible for a Fenway team to outscore a Murph team. It happened in our 1985 season. I'm not disputing that. But the reason for that is NOT based soley on the park. It's based on which players you had. And it's based on what YEARS those players had. It's based on the quality of pitching your divisional opponents had. Even the quality of defense around the league matters. There are just so many VARIABLES that factors in. And HOW MUCH each variable is a factor. These things are impossible to tell because TSN doesn't reveal the dice roll results of each plate appearance.

The one CONSTANT is the park splits. The fact is that hitting a BPHR at the Murph is nearly twice as easy as it is hitting one at Fenway. Sure, hitting a single is non existent at the Murph while it's 1-16 for RH at Fenway. But think about it. You would need to hit FOUR BP singles before 3 outs are recorded to have the same effect as ONE BP HR....otherwise those BP singles mean NOTHING in terms of run production.

In this instance, both Bell and McReynolds played in the same league and for the most part, faced the same opponents. So the only thing [i:5c4c13155a]that we can tell [/i:5c4c13155a]that seperates them is the park. Thus, that's the logic I used when giving the award to Bell. Now, is my logic 100% sound? Of course not. If we WERE capable of seeing the dice roll results, we may see that Bell hit more BP HRs than McReynolds. It's possible, sure. But the fact is we CAN'T see the dice results. So until we can, I have to make the assumption that McReynolds' HR and RBI total benefitted more from playing at better HR park.

[YountFan]

[quote:53a85f2461]I really disagree, Sykes. I strongly believe the HR rating of a park weighs much more than the singles rating for two basic reasons -- a HR has much more impact than a single, and cards never have more than 5 BP single chances, while many hitters have 8 BP HR's on their cards. [/quote:53a85f2461]

But BC almost ALL cards, both hitters and pitchers have 5 BP single chances per side. That is 10 chances per 216, or near 5% of the chances in any given matchup. When that 5% is nearly always a hit (as in Fenway) it increases BA, OBA and SLG, when it is an out as in JM it decreases the same. This 5% is not effected by W/N power rating. You only need to look at how Fenway affects hittering in real life. There is more hitting in Fenway than Jack Murphy. I agree the BP # also affect the same it is just that there distribution is more varied and affected by other factors.

I am not saying that Bell is not a deserving of the ROY, but Sykes has solid arguments for K-MAC.

We had a discussion like this with Burns was awarded the Cy Young a few years back and he is still wearing the disputed tag like a freakin' *. Put the disputed tag on Bell or take it off of Burns.

[YountFan]

[quote:1cdcf6b733]The one CONSTANT is the park splits. The fact is that hitting a BPHR at the Murph is nearly twice as easy as it is hitting one at Fenway. Sure, hitting a single is non existent at the Murph while it's 1-16 for RH at Fenway. But think about it. You would need to hit FOUR BP singles before 3 outs are recorded to have the same effect as ONE BP HR....otherwise those BP singles mean NOTHING in terms of run production. [/quote:1cdcf6b733]
But in Fenway the BP singles pile up and turn the batting order over giving players more at bats and more and therefore more RBI chances. In the Murphy they stop innings and decrease RBI chances. It is not a straight comparison.

Bell was the selection and Bell should remain the selection.


[quote:1cdcf6b733]You would need to hit FOUR BP singles before 3 outs are recorded to have the same effect as ONE BP HR....otherwise those BP singles mean NOTHING in terms of run production[/quote:1cdcf6b733]
Yes, but if that BP > is followed by an extrabase hit it can be a run scored. In the Murph it is and out and a man on 2nd.

[albert2b]

[quote:7473fe1f39]But in Fenway the BP singles pile up and turn the batting order over giving players more at bats and more and therefore more RBI chances. In the Murphy they stop innings and decrease RBI chances. It is not a straight comparison.[/quote:7473fe1f39]

I agree with the first part of that statement, YF. No doubt, BP singles will provide more RBI chances in Fenway than at the Murph. But that's all they are....CHANCES. When you hit a BP HR, that leaves no room for chance. It's definitely, without question, at least one run...and maybe more if there are men on base. Huge difference.

[quote:7473fe1f39]Yes, but if that BP > is followed by an extrabase hit it can be a run scored. In the Murph it is and out and a man on 2nd.[/quote:7473fe1f39]

But YF, by putting the extrabase-hit into mix, you are now factoring a NON-BALLPARK related on-base chance into your example. I could just as easily give an example with consecutive batters reaching base via a BB and a HBP. The next batter then hits a BP HR...so it's 3 runs scored. In Fenway, the odds are much greater that it's just a flyout and NO RUNS scored.

Sure, I suppose the CHANCE to score runs is still there, but me personally, I'd much rather have money in the bank :wink:

[Sykes25]

Bell had a 1986 card.

K-Mac had a 1988 card.

I'd like to not give a ROY to numbers you expect from that card of Bell's. K-Mac outperformed his card in every aspect. Make of it what you wish.

[quote:4533ed37ef]So until we can, I have to make the assumption that McReynolds' HR and RBI total benefitted more from playing at better HR park. [/quote:4533ed37ef]

And what about K-Mac's AVG? With your logic, he could have hit .380 at Fenway.

Throw out the parks unless you are going to be fair both ways.

[BC Manager]

I don't think the card should be a factor in the awarding of ROY. If we're going to compare performance to card with all of these awards, we're going to have to re-evaluate all of them.

I would attribute some of McReynolds' overperformance to the park (just to tick you off, Sykes :wink: ) Having said that, that's quite the amazing overperformance -- almost doubling his HR total and adding 24 pts to his BA. Bell did overperform, too.

Anyway, unless there's some more convincing arguments on either side, I'm inclined to say Bell and McReynolds should share the ROY award for 85. No one other than IM seems to be making a case for Key.

[YountFan]

[quote:106f602594]Anyway, unless there's some more convincing arguments on either side, I'm inclined to say Bell and McReynolds should share the ROY award for 85. No one other than IM seems to be making a case for Key. [/quote:106f602594]

Vote for the compromise canidate Dick Scofield. His selection will offent no one and he is in contract talks for the 86 season and a ROY award will get him a raise.

Strut Pederson
Agent

[Sykes25]

Just some quick numbers crunching...

40+ Jack Murphy Teams for me have averaged around...
4.33 ERA
1.37 WHIP
.262 AVG
.465 SLG
.330 OBP

5 + Fenway Teams for me have averaged around...
4.66 ERA
1.46 WHIP
.282 AVG
.448 SLG
.343 OBP

Obviously my data for Murphy is more reliable in terms of amount of teams to arrive at averages, but please feel free to look at any Fenways in any leagues you play in to dispute my averages.

Feel free to play the OPS game with those figures if needed and tell me that the park made the man. As Bill the Cat would say...

Pffffffffhhhhttttt!

[albert2b]

[quote:4c1f8e073f]And what about K-Mac's AVG? With your logic, he could have hit .380 at Fenway.

Throw out the parks unless you are going to be fair both ways. [/quote:4c1f8e073f]

I never said K-Mac's average wouldn't have been boosted if he played at Fenway (although I highly doubt it would've been .380). All I said was that his HR and RBI totals benefitted greatly from playing at the Murph. There is no denying that.

And if you look at my previous All-Star, MVP and ROY selections, I put MUCH more weight in overall RUN PRODUCTION than I do in batting average. Gorman Thomas is a good example. I chose him as MVP despite him having a mediocre .275 average. Wade Boggs is another example. I left him off the All-Star team despite his .350+ batting average at the break. Why? Because DeCinces and Brett were just better overall run producers. For me, that's the name of the game.