by childsmwc » Mon Sep 26, 2005 1:48 pm
Its actually a closer call than you might think when you factor in Dave Smiths card. Personally with Aaron on deck I would be playing for pure OBP, which Collins leads Bochy by 11 OB chances when you factor in D. Smith's card. However, this 11 OBP lead does not factor in BP HR chances. The Collins/Smith combo has 3 the Collins/Bochy Combo has 11.
So now depending on the ballpark Bochy has narrowed that gap considerably. Now if you are the type of manager that is willing to sacrifice a few OBP chances late in the game for a chance to tie it with one swing, then Bochy is a great move at this point. The Bochy/Smith Combo has 5.55 natural HR's plus the 11 BP hr's vs. Collins/Smith at 1.95 natural HR's plus only 3 BP hr's.
So depending on the ballpark in that situation, these two are not real far apart in OBP and Bochy gives you considerably more HR chances as well as extra base chances.
Bbrool