Mohr?

[LA Bear]

Mohr, Dustan R RF 3(-1)e7 177 18 9 0 6 25 0 1 .147 .209 .278 3R 5.15M

After 50 games, I just don't know what to say. The statistical improbability that someone with a card like his could be putting up such poor numbers is simply amazing! Anyone else have an experience like this with a $5M+ player?

[Stoney18]

Playing in Petco with a Petco, Busch & Comerica in our division will suppress the numbers a little bit. All three of us have pretty good pitching staffs as well.

That said, I think it's just a deal where he's just getting consistently bad rolls. I just hope it stays that way. :lol:

[MICHAELTARBELL]

I have to be honest...I love the card, but have yet to see him perform very well at all. Seems like he should be a great leadoff hitter vs righties, but I have seen him in several of my leagues, and always with mediocre numbers....

[MICHAELTARBELL]

[quote:a50741a1bf]Playing in Petco with a Petco, Busch & Comerica in our division will suppress the numbers a little bit. All three of us have pretty good pitching staffs as well.
[/quote:a50741a1bf]

The park should not really effect this guy too much, as most of his obp comes from walks and pure hits...he is not very bp dependent IMO....

Could be bad luck, but as I said, he has been unlucky on alot of teams that I have seen. :wink:

[vince0501]

I have Mohr on a team in Camden. Through 3/4 of the season he is hitting .250, but the OBP is around .370, which is about what I was hoping for. The surprise has been the HR's, at 19! Did not expect that, even in Camden. I guess sometimes we have to remember it is still a roll of the dice.

[childsmwc]

Everyone is ballpark dependent. The single ball park effects occur 10/216 for a .046 probability. Now if you assume that the average park were say a 1-10 for singles then 23 points of his batting average is from the park. Once you put him in Petco at 1-1 for singles Mohr and anyone else should hit 23 points less that there average. You are obviously having some bad numbers, but Petco turns a .300 hitter into a .277 hitter.

Also with a reverse righty like Mohr they are much more susceptible to fluctuations in stats for two reasons:

1) If they face more lefties there stats will come down
2) If they are facing tough righties then the pitching cards they are facing are contributing to their overall lower stats (hard righties are easy to find).

I guarantee that if you took two identical cards that were weighted to hit righties better and the only difference was one card was a lefthanded hitter and the other was a righthanded hitter, the left handed hitter would produce better stats over the season.

Bbrool

[childsmwc]

Actually the numbers I cited would be changes in OBP. BA changes would be slightly larger once you eliminate walk chances from the denominator.

Bbrool

[MICHAELTARBELL]

[quote:018541ec4e]Everyone is ballpark dependent. The single ball park effects occur 10/216 for a .046 probability. Now if you assume that the average park were say a 1-10 for singles then 23 points of his batting average is from the park. Once you put him in Petco at 1-1 for singles Mohr and anyone else should hit 23 points less that there average. You are obviously having some bad numbers, but Petco turns a .300 hitter into a .277 hitter.[/quote:018541ec4e]

Very interesting Bbrool...of course it only makes sense, and is no secret that you will hit less than in a hitters park. However, there are some players who are more bp dependent than others, and I would say that mohrs OBP is less dependent on the park than some other players, wouldn't you agree??

Also, aren't your numbers based soley on getting on your own card 100% of the time? IF so, then of course the other 50% of the time you are on the pitchers card would determine alot about your outcome also correct?

[MICHAELTARBELL]

[quote:dd43e64bef]I guarantee that if you took two identical cards that were weighted to hit righties better and the only difference was one card was a lefthanded hitter and the other was a righthanded hitter, the left handed hitter would produce better stats over the season.
[/quote:dd43e64bef]

This statement is also ballpark dependent correct? I mean, a righty who hits righties better will fair better in Wrigley than a lefty that hits righties better eh? (unless of course the lefty is Bonds! :wink: ).

[MICHAELTARBELL]

[quote:7b300d8b41="vince0501"]I have Mohr on a team in Camden. Through 3/4 of the season he is hitting .250, but the OBP is around .370, which is about what I was hoping for. The surprise has been the HR's, at 19! Did not expect that, even in Camden. I guess sometimes we have to remember it is still a roll of the dice.[/quote:7b300d8b41]

This is about what I would expect from Mohr...low ba, but high obp....the 19 hr's is a nice bonus tho eh?? :wink: :)