Building a winning pitching staff ... in a pitcher's park

[cummings2]

I think in general the idea most managers go by is to allocate more budget to the SPs since they'll have a tendency to go deeper into games and less on bullpen though still keeping the strong closer.

There's an interesting thread in this forum with 3 pretty good examples of teams in petco. "can I win in petco with stud starters all 1 defense and Big Papi" or something like that. You'll see some pretty good pens, rotations and defenses there to match the "ultimate" pitchers park.

My only time around in petco (05) I went with a heavier Bullpen than I needed and by consequence my offense suffered quite a bit. There's another thread "the importance of BP more to it than..." where though aimed to adressing the offense side of the pitcher's park equation you can take a peek at a luckyman's '05 petco team.

As I've often said before, when he shares stuff it pays off to listen, he's the Bruce Springsteen of the boards in my book...simply: The Boss :wink:

Hope some others chime in with some thoughts

[MARCPELLETIER]

I would look for high-priced SP with BP homeruns on their cards. Martinez, Santana, RJohnson Peavy would probably be the four I would look for.

Pitchers like Radke or Towers can make very effective #4 starter.

[geekor]

what MArcus said.

pitchers with low whips (or if you have the ratings, oba). You dont care as much about the BP effects, you just want to keep them off period. Try to limit the TB's as well if you can, as doubles score people in pitchers parks.

[deeznuts515]

I think something to note is also that while you can derive extra value from pitchers with lots of BPHRs, the ones that have 8 on one or both sides usually also have a ton of direct HR (i.e. Kerry Wood types). Those are killer in Petco... IMHO the best values are the guys who have 5-6-7 BPHR.

[DAVIDGAMBLE]

High Strikeout guys and guys with a lot of gbAs/fbCs and the like will prevent the pesky smallballers from nickeling and diming you in ballparks that don't give up a lot of runs. Nice HOLD ratings....don't let those dudes get free advances!!! If they don't get the freebies the ballpark will take care o' the rest. Of course along with all the other things the guys have previously said.

[deeznuts515]

I don't think there's that much difference between a park that has a 5 for bp singles and a 1, and in general ballpark singles don't affect the way the team plays nearly as much as the HRS. Because 1. Most hitters and pitchers are affected equally, 2. the rolls are affected in a lesser way - hitters and pitchers only have 5 bp single effects on their cards, while it goes up to 8 for HRs, and 3. the single obviously has much less effect offensively than the HR.

Still, in a park like Kaufmann, which has low BPHRS but decently high singles, you may want to consider avoiding the few players with no BP singles (ie Frank Thomas etc) and take advantage of the pitchers with no BP singles - lots of the $$$ ones, and some cheapies like Escobar...
Conversely, I find that in extreme pitchers environments like Petco, the opposite is true - guys like Escobar are a waste because the park takes care of the singles anyway, and guys like Thomas are a little more of a value because you don't pay for the BP singles they wouldn't hit anyway.

As far as pitchers that give up a lot of walks, there is a good post Marcus made on this same strategy forum about the importance of ballparks, more to it than HRs... I won't go into it all here, you should check it out but basically it talks about how in a low scoring environment, the walk is far less effective as a means to score than a walk in a high scoring environment...

Thus, pitchers whose OB is more walk-based than hit-based (i.e. Kazmir) are better values in a pitching ballpark than a Coors. Similarly, players who walk a ton (ie Dunn, Giambi) give much more bang for the buck in Coors than in Petco.

[PAULMINICUCCI]

I have had some success in Petco (more last year than this). In fact my overall record is poor because I keep trying to win at Coors and other hitter's parks which I don't do well. I like pitcher's parks because you can control more variables, at least I think so. My rules are:

1. think defense first-obvious. I think that it is imperative to have a great catcher in Petco because other owners will immediately get aggressive on the basepaths. In fact in 2005 I tried for Castillo first, Ichiro next and then the catcher. I usually settled for Everett at ss, with a good back-up with no more than a 2 fielding rating. There are some cathers who have good power and low BA but great defense. It is a must to have good middle d. If you have to sacrifice defense somewhere for offense, do it in LF or RF. Like I used Cabrera and Alou well in the 2005 game. I can tell you I usually ended up with problems in CF. I would usually lacked a lead-off guy. (Castillo is one-sided). In 2005 the best compromise I found was Rowand. Or Crisp. Weak arm but good range. Or I used to try and get Finley and live with his low average. I haven't found 2006 guys yet for Petco teams, I am collecting data still, but Marrero and Newhan were unbeatable in 2005.
2. think offense- to me the biggest single problem people encounter is they leave themselves short on offense. This impacts picthing because you run out of money quick with all of the restricitons. Drafting is key here. Man I got screwed twice because I draftyed wrong and there are so few players who work, it is imperative to draft well. But I usually figure, a 1stbaseman or third baseman can be had in middle of the draft because there are so many of them. Not so at ss. You can't have a team that is completely singles guys. You need in my opinion two bangers. Who? Well I look for guys with high natural HRs and good average. Beltre was great in 2005. I just ignore the BPHR rating. A lot of owners shy away from guys with high BPHRs because they say you pay for the rating but you can't use them. I don't because you need some of that in other parks if the rest of your line-up does not have punch. I think you have to break even on the road. I used to use Mabry to good effect in 2005. Beltran and Manny actually worked well. Another guy who surprised me in 2005 was Glaus. He had a lot of natural HRs. The other error is to depend too much on OBP and not enough on Slugging. Of course RC or OPS is important. Cummings had a great thread on why you need hitters (I think it was Cummings-his threads are the best in all subjects) and not just walkers at Petco, i.e. a walk (except for 1 and 2) is not as good as a hit. The opposing picther is much better in Petco, so trying to win station to station is risky. What I mean by that is, it is easy to underestimate your opposition. You have to figure on where can I get 650 runs scored here. I had several Petco teams hit more than .280. They won.
2A. check the little things, like moving baserunners up. I usually max out the H and R and construct the order to reflect that. Try and get a LH batter to hit second with a high OBP to lead off. Look for cheap platoons- like Young. Ichiro was the perfect guy in 2005. The really controversial thing I do is steal bases. Here is what I think. Normally unless you can do 75% or better you run ourself out of big innings. I think at Petco you don't get big innings. So I live with a lower base-stealing rate. I did some data collection using real game situations. Putting pressure on the defense and staying out of double plays is a big thing in pitcher parks. I change the steal and baserunner settings every game depending on catchers and outfielders. I will live with a 67% in pitcher's park. I know, I know everyone is saying no way, bad decision. That's a subject for another day and yes I have the chart about percentage of runners who score from each base with no outs, one out and two outs. If I have Ichiro and Robinson or Pierre (although for a lot of reasons he is not great at Petco) I run them to death. Guys like Everett and Kennedy run better than you might think. If you bat them 8th or 9th (the second lead-ff man) then you need thwm to be in scoring position for Robinson or Ichiro (2005 game). I also found that guys like Belliard are good bets here, like Belliard against RH for 8th or 9th. Doubles. I also found Rowand is in the top ten basestealing percentage in most leagues. Crisp gets thrown out a lot so I don't run him unless I have RH pitcher's with slow delivery or catcher with 0 to + throwing.

Back to lead-off, I don't know who is good in 2006. Duffy may be an answer. Tyner has some possibilities. Young for lead-off is pretty good against LH and while he does not steal a lot has a pretty good OBP for a cheap player. The other guy who was great in 2005 was Kerry Robinson. I also had Young/Robinson platoon going.
3. In choosing pitchers, I try and grab the cheaper guys first or at least pencil them in first. Last year Milton, Bonderman, Wolf and Contreras were golden. I like Radke this year. What I think you look for is guys who have fewer hits per inning but have relatively high ERAs. Radke has a lot of hits but lots of singles and BPHRs. If they have fairly low WHIPs, then it means the high ERA is usually due to home runs. If they have lots of BPHRs but not too many other extra base hits on their cards they work.
If you can access Milton's 2005 card look at it. Find any pitcher that has those characteristics.
4. I try to get two guys like the above for less than a total of $4million. Then I go for two real studs, one good against LH and one against RH.
5. The other thing I do not think works in Petco or other pitcher park is if you try and make it on four* pitchers. You spend all your money there and lack depth for match-ups at other parks. the other thing is Contreras and Milton get smoked at hitter's parks so you have to hide them on the road. In 2005 the best pitcher was Peavy. He worked at Petco and on the road. I try to stay away from RJ, not becasue he isn't great it just seems to me, he was proportionally not much better at Petco and you spend a ton. Spending is always the issue at Petco, more so than any other park.
Pedro also was good. Oswalt seems to work. I also stayed away from Santana for the same reason.
6. I think that you should NOT overspend in the bullpen. I think you need depth rather than heft. One good rp is enough but you should have five dedicated rps. Six if possible. The more choice HAL has using cheap guys the better. Wickman is an example. Myers is another. Again, the good thing is if you notice, there are a lot of relievers who have bad BPHRs and that's why they are cheap. Or they have no closer status. That's okay.
7. I try not to overrestrict HAL with your settings. More guys and less restricitions.


Cheers.

[1crazycanuk]

Interesting. :D

I loved having Milton in Petco and I was lucky enough to have Clemens once too. Webb was awesome for me in Petco as well. As for the bullpen, I personally like to have a tough bullpen, especially in hitter's parks. But I did have Gordon and Nathan in Petco and that is a big reason why I got to the finals. I haven't gotten back yet. :(