Strategy Forum/Newbie Advice thread

One of the forums on the message boards hosted by Sporting News was for the discussion of Strategy. Recently the link to the SN forums found on the top of the Board Index page disappeared. When it was available I doubt many used it. So I'm bringing some of my favorite threads here from not only the Strategy forum but also from the archived 20XX forum. As this thread drifts down the page I'll bump it occasionally with new posts from the old days. Some of the information and players mentioned in the posts may be dated but, hey, aren't we all.


marcus wilby/luckyman/MARCPELLETIER brought the Newbie Advice Thread from the pre-SN message boards. If your a new player read it. Then read it again. Vets, you'll probably earn a couple of extra W's per season if you give it another gander as well.



I started a topic called Institutional Memory in which I brought together old threads that I thought would benefit managers. Here are a couple to start with and since links no longer work on the archived SN boards I'll use the rest of the posts in that thread as bumps.

How do you build a lineup
Help with Stealing Strategy - cummings2 with a very thorough explanation of the steal


J-Pav's annual overview of the past season:

The Big Post for 2016 (2015)
Champs: Who is your highest priced offensive player? (2014)
Secret Formula 2012
Secret Formula 2011
Secret Formula 2010
Secret Formula 2009
Secret Formula 2008
Secret Formula 2007 - the SF is on page 2 of the thread
Secret Formula 2006 - introduction of Salary Structure; 7 pages of comments
Secret Formula 2005 - great back and forth with marcus wilby/MARCPELLETIER

Thanks for the great summary of links!

Here are the archives themselves, in total:

https://forum-365.strat-o-matic.com/archivesn/

They must have not realized that they were deleting the link to this when they deleted some other posts.

Palmtana,

Thx for including the links!

J

Palmtana,

Thx for including the links!

J

My pleasure J-Pav. Primers like your SF threads need to stick around.

See mtarbell's summary on page 2:
Closer Rule Explanation

BPHR - How many is too many?

Hit and Run, gb(x), infield in, single**........

Hit and Run

Saw this at SOMworld .com and thought it applied, especially the adivice on Fantasy vs Strat vis-a-vis Hallady and Weaver. Please note that the specific examples are referencing the upcoming cards but the theories apply overall.

Ultimate Strat Strategy
February 19, 2013
Forget the theories on winning with great hitting or winning with pitching and defense. Everyone wants to win with maximum card value.
Get the best OB*TB units for hitters, have 1 and 2 range in the field, and get great pitching cards. That’s not really strategy anymore. Everyone is chasing the exact same thing.
To be honest, card value dictates the type of team you have in a given set. Some years you may have great pitching. You may have the mega lineup in other sets. You always have to maximize whatever card value is on the roster.
What you want to do is go beyond what everyone else is doing.

Size Matters
Players that can start in a 24-team league may end up as reserves in a 16-team league. Players that are reserves in a 24-team league might be better left in the free agent pool in a 16-team league.
Zack Cozart has the number 18 SS card in the 2012 set going by the RC-RA measurement. That means he’s a starter in a 24-team league.
Cozart is not really good enough to start in a 16-team league. There are 17 better card options. Starting Cozart means you need to upgrade at the position.


Unproductive Outs
The lineup is a hamster on a wheel in a cage. You want to cycle through your lineup as many times as possible in a game. You need more than hits and walks from the lineup to win the game. You have to advance baserunners and score runs.
Player cards with high K and groundball A units do not advance runners. Several of these cards in your lineup will kill innings and cause you to lose draft league games.
Low average MLB hitters with high K percentages equals low Strat card hit units and high groundball A units. You don't want too many of these cards on your team.
This is one area where you can add 3 to 5 wins over a draft league season. That could be the difference between the playoffs and missing out on a wild card.

SP Split Differentials
The opposing manager tailors his lineup to take advantage of your SP card. Those cards with high split differentials are an open invitation for the opposing manager to load up the lineup. Max Scherzer, Johnny Cueto, even Matt Cain, have a high probability of underperforming in draft leagues, especially in the 16 and 20-team leagues. The cards are not balanced and will see a ratio or distribution of L/R that is exaggerated in comparison to the actual or real season.
Scherzer and Cueto in the playoffs against the wrong playoff opponent could easily equal an early exit from the post-season chase.


Fantasy Baseball Is Not Strat Baseball
Fantasy baseball analysis is not geared for the Strat game engine.
SP and RP cards may look good on the OB units or by a OB*TB unit measurement but they can still have issues because of 2 points.
Roy Halladay is never as good in Strat as in real life because he always has high 1B unit totals. High 1B unit totals means the opponents will nickel and dime you with base runners. Sooner or later, there will be a big hit or roll off the hitter cards.
Jered Weaver has high RH BP HR units. Sooner or later that will come into play and cost you games. The home ballpark is only good 50 percent of the time. You can try to minimize the damage but Weaver will still pitch in tougher environments.
Weaver and Halladay are great for fantasy. They may or may not be as good in a given Strat set because of 1B or HR unit issues.
Carl Crawford may have been fantasy gold in some seasons. He has never had great RH OB units in his Strat history. He has been above average in sets but never great. The same is true with Ichiro and Jose Reyes.
All three of these hitters have produced good Strat cards in the past. This is not to diminish them as Strat players but they are not as good in Strat as they have been in fantasy baseball.


Heavy Hitter vs. Slick Fielder is False
This is not a good dichotomy or distinction for Strat baseball. It promotes false choices and fails to account for the differences between the hitting columns and the X-Chart results.
Miguel Cabrera is a horrible fielder but his bat is so much better than most other hitters that the defense doesn't matter. Brendan Ryan may have the SS-1 but his bat is so horrible that it diminishes your lineup and run-scoring efficiency.
What you want is a hitter card where the offensive contribution exceeds the defensive "give back," for want of a better term. You get that with Cabrera. You get that with Derek Jeter, even if he is a SS-3. You don't get that with Brendan Ryan or Freddy Galvis. Why? There is no offensive contribution.
What you want are hitter cards with big RC-RA, where runs created far outpaces runs allowed. And if you're still worried about it, then that's what the defensive replacements are for.

marcus wilby with an explanation of how to "count the cards"

Great rotation but....

DeanTSC's excellent paper on offense vs. defense, and the run production model:

http://www.mfooz.com/bblog/wp-content/u ... efense.pdf